diff --git a/chainladder/utils/data/_manifest.py b/chainladder/utils/data/_manifest.py
index e5c0cce0..ca269e1b 100644
--- a/chainladder/utils/data/_manifest.py
+++ b/chainladder/utils/data/_manifest.py
@@ -158,6 +158,7 @@
         "columns": [
             "Reported Claims",
             "Paid Claims",
+            "Population",
         ],
         "cumulative": True,
     },
diff --git a/chainladder/utils/data/friedland_gl_self_insurer.csv b/chainladder/utils/data/friedland_gl_self_insurer.csv
index 09775235..56be1f0d 100644
--- a/chainladder/utils/data/friedland_gl_self_insurer.csv
+++ b/chainladder/utils/data/friedland_gl_self_insurer.csv
@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
-Accident Year,Calendar Year,Reported Claims,Paid Claims
-1998,2008,900000,890000
-1999,2008,1200000,1170000
-2000,2008,1300000,1265000
-2001,2008,1800000,1600000
-2002,2008,1450000,1200000
-2003,2008,1400000,1050000
-2004,2008,2400000,900000
-2005,2008,1800000,860000
-2006,2008,1500000,525000
-2007,2008,1200000,750000
-2008,2008,600000,170000
\ No newline at end of file
+Accident Year,Calendar Year,Reported Claims,Paid Claims,Population
+1998,2008,900000,890000,709000
+1999,2008,1200000,1170000,724000
+2000,2008,1300000,1265000,736000
+2001,2008,1800000,1600000,740000
+2002,2008,1450000,1200000,750000
+2003,2008,1400000,1050000,760000
+2004,2008,2400000,900000,770000
+2005,2008,1800000,860000,775000
+2006,2008,1500000,525000,780000
+2007,2008,1200000,750000,785000
+2008,2008,600000,170000,790000
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/docs/_toc.yml b/docs/_toc.yml
index 3cf0a5b9..14c63ae7 100644
--- a/docs/_toc.yml
+++ b/docs/_toc.yml
@@ -35,6 +35,7 @@ parts:
       sections:
       - file: friedland/chapter_6.rst
       - file: friedland/chapter_7.rst
+      - file: friedland/chapter_8.ipynb
       - file: friedland/chapter_9.ipynb
       - file: friedland/chapter_10.ipynb
   - chapters:
diff --git a/docs/friedland/chapter_8.ipynb b/docs/friedland/chapter_8.ipynb
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..9d49fe82
--- /dev/null
+++ b/docs/friedland/chapter_8.ipynb
@@ -0,0 +1,5042 @@
+{
+  "cells": [
+    {
+      "cell_type": "markdown",
+      "id": "e2483dec",
+      "metadata": {},
+      "source": [
+        "# Chapter 8 - Expected Claims Technique\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 1,
+      "id": "f18b63df",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:54.161935Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:54.161802Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.252132Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.251068Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [],
+      "source": [
+        "import numpy as np\n",
+        "import pandas as pd\n",
+        "import chainladder as cl\n",
+        "from IPython.display import display\n",
+        "\n",
+        "pd.set_option(\"display.max_columns\", None)\n",
+        "pd.set_option(\"display.width\", 1000)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "# Helper functions, skip to the next section for actual exhibits\n",
+        "def as_series(tri):\n",
+        "    s = tri.to_frame(origin_as_datetime=False).iloc[:, 0]\n",
+        "    s.index = [int(getattr(i, \"year\", i)) for i in s.index]\n",
+        "    return s\n",
+        "\n",
+        "\n",
+        "def avg_ex_high_low(values):\n",
+        "    values = np.asarray(values, dtype=float).flatten()\n",
+        "    return (values.sum() - values.max() - values.min()) / (len(values) - 2)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "\n",
+        "def unpaid_exhibit(reported, paid, expected):\n",
+        "    out = pd.DataFrame(index=list(reported.origin.year))\n",
+        "    out[\"Reported (2)\"] = as_series(reported.latest_diagonal).values\n",
+        "    out[\"Paid (3)\"] = as_series(paid.latest_diagonal).values\n",
+        "    out[\"Expected Claims (4)\"] = as_series(expected).values\n",
+        "    out[\"Case Outstanding (5)\"] = out[\"Reported (2)\"] - out[\"Paid (3)\"]\n",
+        "    out[\"IBNR (6)\"] = out[\"Expected Claims (4)\"] - out[\"Reported (2)\"]\n",
+        "    out[\"Total Unpaid (7)\"] = out[\"Expected Claims (4)\"] - out[\"Paid (3)\"]\n",
+        "    return out\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "markdown",
+      "id": "16398dc9",
+      "metadata": {},
+      "source": [
+        "## P140 (Exhibit I Sheet 1)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 2,
+      "id": "2618380c",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.262396Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.261697Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.450905Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.450503Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Paid (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>CDF Reported (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>CDF Paid (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Ult Reported (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Ult Paid (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Initial Selected (8)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (9)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Trend to 7/1/08 (10)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Tort Reform (11)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Trended Adj Ult (12)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Trended Adj Claim Ratio (13)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>10000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>9500000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.005</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.05</td>\n",
+              "      <td>10050000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>9975000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>10012500.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>24000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2.954</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.67</td>\n",
+              "      <td>19816540.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.83</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>8000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>7200000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.020</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.15</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8160000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8280000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8220000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>18000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2.580</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.67</td>\n",
+              "      <td>14209092.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.79</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>9400000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>7600000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.030</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.25</td>\n",
+              "      <td>9682000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>9500000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>9591000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>19000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2.253</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.67</td>\n",
+              "      <td>14477710.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.76</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>15600000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>7800000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.100</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.35</td>\n",
+              "      <td>17160000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>10530000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>13845000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>23000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.968</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.67</td>\n",
+              "      <td>18255463.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.79</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>16500000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>11200000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.200</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>19800000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>19600000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>19700000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>32000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.719</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>25398225.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.79</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>18500000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>10200000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.400</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2.50</td>\n",
+              "      <td>25900000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>25500000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>25700000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.501</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.00</td>\n",
+              "      <td>38575700.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.82</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>16500000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>6000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.800</td>\n",
+              "      <td>5.00</td>\n",
+              "      <td>29700000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>30000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>29850000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>50000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.311</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.00</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39133350.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.78</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>14000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2.900</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15.00</td>\n",
+              "      <td>40600000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>45000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>42800000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>57000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.145</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.00</td>\n",
+              "      <td>49006000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.86</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>8700000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>750000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>4.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>90.00</td>\n",
+              "      <td>34800000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>67500000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>51150000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>62000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.00</td>\n",
+              "      <td>51150000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.82</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Reported (2)    Paid (3)  CDF Reported (4)  CDF Paid (5)  Ult Reported (6)  Ult Paid (7)  Initial Selected (8)  Earned Premium (9)  Trend to 7/1/08 (10)  Tort Reform (11)  Trended Adj Ult (12)  Trended Adj Claim Ratio (13)\n",
+              "2000    10000000.0   9500000.0             1.005          1.05        10050000.0     9975000.0            10012500.0          24000000.0                 2.954              0.67            19816540.0                          0.83\n",
+              "2001     8000000.0   7200000.0             1.020          1.15         8160000.0     8280000.0             8220000.0          18000000.0                 2.580              0.67            14209092.0                          0.79\n",
+              "2002     9400000.0   7600000.0             1.030          1.25         9682000.0     9500000.0             9591000.0          19000000.0                 2.253              0.67            14477710.0                          0.76\n",
+              "2003    15600000.0   7800000.0             1.100          1.35        17160000.0    10530000.0            13845000.0          23000000.0                 1.968              0.67            18255463.0                          0.79\n",
+              "2004    16500000.0  11200000.0             1.200          1.75        19800000.0    19600000.0            19700000.0          32000000.0                 1.719              0.75            25398225.0                          0.79\n",
+              "2005    18500000.0  10200000.0             1.400          2.50        25900000.0    25500000.0            25700000.0          47000000.0                 1.501              1.00            38575700.0                          0.82\n",
+              "2006    16500000.0   6000000.0             1.800          5.00        29700000.0    30000000.0            29850000.0          50000000.0                 1.311              1.00            39133350.0                          0.78\n",
+              "2007    14000000.0   3000000.0             2.900         15.00        40600000.0    45000000.0            42800000.0          57000000.0                 1.145              1.00            49006000.0                          0.86\n",
+              "2008     8700000.0    750000.0             4.000         90.00        34800000.0    67500000.0            51150000.0          62000000.0                 1.000              1.00            51150000.0                          0.82"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Items (14)-(17)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Avg 2000-2005 (14)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.797</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Avg 2000-2005 ex Hi/Lo (14)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.798</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Avg 2001-2006 (14)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.788</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Avg 2001-2006 ex Hi/Lo (14)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.787</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Selected Claim Ratio (15)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.800</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims 2008 (16)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>49,600,000</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Total Unpaid 2008 (17)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>48,850,000</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>IBNR 2008 (17)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>40,900,000</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "                            Items (14)-(17)\n",
+              "Avg 2000-2005 (14)                    0.797\n",
+              "Avg 2000-2005 ex Hi/Lo (14)           0.798\n",
+              "Avg 2001-2006 (14)                    0.788\n",
+              "Avg 2001-2006 ex Hi/Lo (14)           0.787\n",
+              "Selected Claim Ratio (15)             0.800\n",
+              "Expected Claims 2008 (16)        49,600,000\n",
+              "Total Unpaid 2008 (17)           48,850,000\n",
+              "IBNR 2008 (17)                   40,900,000"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        }
+      ],
+      "source": [
+        "auto_bi = cl.load_sample(\"friedland_auto_bi_insurer\")\n",
+        "\n",
+        "reported_pattern = {\n",
+        "    12: 4, 24: 2.9, 36: 1.8, 48: 1.4, 60: 1.2, 72: 1.1, 84: 1.03, 96: 1.02, 108: 1.005,\n",
+        "}\n",
+        "paid_pattern = {\n",
+        "    12: 90, 24: 15, 36: 5, 48: 2.5, 60: 1.75, 72: 1.35, 84: 1.25, 96: 1.15, 108: 1.05,\n",
+        "}\n",
+        "\n",
+        "reported_bi = cl.DevelopmentConstant(patterns=reported_pattern, style=\"cdf\").fit_transform(\n",
+        "    auto_bi[\"Reported Claims\"]\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "paid_bi = cl.DevelopmentConstant(patterns=paid_pattern, style=\"cdf\").fit_transform(\n",
+        "    auto_bi[\"Paid Claims\"]\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "reported_ultimate = cl.Chainladder().fit(reported_bi).ultimate_\n",
+        "paid_ultimate = cl.Chainladder().fit(paid_bi).ultimate_\n",
+        "initial_selected = (reported_ultimate + paid_ultimate) / 2\n",
+        "\n",
+        "trend_factors = np.round(\n",
+        "    cl.Trend(trends=[0.145], dates=[(\"2008-12-31\", \"2000-01-01\")])\n",
+        "    .fit(auto_bi[\"Earned Premium\"])\n",
+        "    .trend_.latest_diagonal,\n",
+        "    3,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "tort_factors = np.array([0.670, 0.670, 0.670, 0.670, 0.750, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0])\n",
+        "trended_adj = np.round(\n",
+        "    trend_factors * initial_selected * tort_factors.reshape(1, 1, -1, 1), 0\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "claim_ratio = np.round(trended_adj / auto_bi[\"Earned Premium\"].latest_diagonal, 2)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "years = list(auto_bi[\"Reported Claims\"].origin.year)\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1 = pd.DataFrame(index=years)\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1[\"Reported (2)\"] = as_series(auto_bi[\"Reported Claims\"].latest_diagonal).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1[\"Paid (3)\"] = as_series(auto_bi[\"Paid Claims\"].latest_diagonal).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1[\"CDF Reported (4)\"] = as_series(\n",
+        "    cl.model_diagnostics(cl.Chainladder().fit(reported_bi))[\"CDF\"]\n",
+        ").values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1[\"CDF Paid (5)\"] = as_series(\n",
+        "    cl.model_diagnostics(cl.Chainladder().fit(paid_bi))[\"CDF\"]\n",
+        ").values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1[\"Ult Reported (6)\"] = as_series(reported_ultimate).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1[\"Ult Paid (7)\"] = as_series(paid_ultimate).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1[\"Initial Selected (8)\"] = as_series(initial_selected).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1[\"Earned Premium (9)\"] = as_series(auto_bi[\"Earned Premium\"].latest_diagonal).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1[\"Trend to 7/1/08 (10)\"] = as_series(trend_factors).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1[\"Tort Reform (11)\"] = tort_factors\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1[\"Trended Adj Ult (12)\"] = as_series(trended_adj).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1[\"Trended Adj Claim Ratio (13)\"] = as_series(claim_ratio).values\n",
+        "display(exhibit_i_s1)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "ratios = as_series(claim_ratio)\n",
+        "avg_00_05 = float(np.round(ratios.loc[2000:2005].mean(), 3))\n",
+        "avg_00_05_xhl = float(np.round(avg_ex_high_low(ratios.loc[2000:2005]), 3))\n",
+        "avg_01_06 = float(np.round(ratios.loc[2001:2006].mean(), 3))\n",
+        "avg_01_06_xhl = float(np.round(avg_ex_high_low(ratios.loc[2001:2006]), 3))\n",
+        "selected_claim_ratio = 0.80\n",
+        "el_reported = cl.ExpectedLoss(apriori=selected_claim_ratio).fit(\n",
+        "    auto_bi[\"Reported Claims\"], sample_weight=auto_bi[\"Earned Premium\"].latest_diagonal\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "el_paid = cl.ExpectedLoss(apriori=selected_claim_ratio).fit(\n",
+        "    auto_bi[\"Paid Claims\"], sample_weight=auto_bi[\"Earned Premium\"].latest_diagonal\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "expected_2008 = float(el_reported.ultimate_.loc[:, :, \"2008\", :].sum())\n",
+        "unpaid_2008 = float(el_paid.ibnr_.loc[:, :, \"2008\", :].sum())\n",
+        "ibnr_2008 = float(el_reported.ibnr_.loc[:, :, \"2008\", :].sum())\n",
+        "\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s1_summary = pd.Series(\n",
+        "    {\n",
+        "        \"Avg 2000-2005 (14)\": avg_00_05,\n",
+        "        \"Avg 2000-2005 ex Hi/Lo (14)\": avg_00_05_xhl,\n",
+        "        \"Avg 2001-2006 (14)\": avg_01_06,\n",
+        "        \"Avg 2001-2006 ex Hi/Lo (14)\": avg_01_06_xhl,\n",
+        "        \"Selected Claim Ratio (15)\": selected_claim_ratio,\n",
+        "        \"Expected Claims 2008 (16)\": expected_2008,\n",
+        "        \"Total Unpaid 2008 (17)\": unpaid_2008,\n",
+        "        \"IBNR 2008 (17)\": ibnr_2008,\n",
+        "    },\n",
+        "    name=\"Items (14)-(17)\",\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "display(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s1_summary.map(\n",
+        "        lambda x: f\"{x:,.0f}\" if abs(x) >= 1 else f\"{x:.3f}\"\n",
+        "    ).to_frame()\n",
+        ")\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 3,
+      "id": "8986d8ac",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.455019Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.454848Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.463138Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.462735Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [],
+      "source": [
+        "# Exhibit I Sheet 1 — reconcile to Friedland PDF p140\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s1[\"Reported (2)\"],\n",
+        "    [10000000, 8000000, 9400000, 15600000, 16500000, 18500000, 16500000, 14000000, 8700000],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s1[\"Paid (3)\"],\n",
+        "    [9500000, 7200000, 7600000, 7800000, 11200000, 10200000, 6000000, 3000000, 750000],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s1[\"Ult Reported (6)\"],\n",
+        "    [10050000, 8160000, 9682000, 17160000, 19800000, 25900000, 29700000, 40600000, 34800000],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s1[\"Ult Paid (7)\"],\n",
+        "    [9975000, 8280000, 9500000, 10530000, 19600000, 25500000, 30000000, 45000000, 67500000],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s1[\"Initial Selected (8)\"],\n",
+        "    [10012500, 8220000, 9591000, 13845000, 19700000, 25700000, 29850000, 42800000, 51150000],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s1[\"Earned Premium (9)\"],\n",
+        "    [24000000, 18000000, 19000000, 23000000, 32000000, 47000000, 50000000, 57000000, 62000000],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s1[\"Trend to 7/1/08 (10)\"],\n",
+        "    [2.954, 2.58, 2.253, 1.968, 1.719, 1.501, 1.311, 1.145, 1],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s1[\"Trended Adj Ult (12)\"],\n",
+        "    [19816540, 14209092, 14477710, 18255463, 25398225, 38575700, 39133350, 49006000, 51150000],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s1[\"Trended Adj Claim Ratio (13)\"],\n",
+        "    [0.83, 0.79, 0.76, 0.79, 0.79, 0.82, 0.78, 0.86, 0.82],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(avg_00_05, 0.797)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(avg_00_05_xhl, 0.798)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(avg_01_06, 0.788)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(avg_01_06_xhl, 0.788, atol=0.001)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(expected_2008, 49600000)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(unpaid_2008, 48850000)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(ibnr_2008, 40900000)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "markdown",
+      "id": "ec20e605",
+      "metadata": {},
+      "source": [
+        "## P141 (Exhibit I Sheet 2)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 4,
+      "id": "77e137a8",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.465440Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.465239Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.693257Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.692892Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Paid (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>CDF Reported (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>CDF Paid (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Ult Reported (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Ult Paid (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Initial Selected (8)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Population (9)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Trend to 7/1/08 (10)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Trended Ult (11)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Trended Pure Premium (12)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1998</th>\n",
+              "      <td>900000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>890000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.015</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.046</td>\n",
+              "      <td>913500.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>930940.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>922220.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>709000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2.061</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1900695.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2.68</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1999</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1200000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1170000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.020</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.067</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1224000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1248390.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1236195.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>724000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.917</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2369786.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3.27</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1300000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1265000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.030</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.109</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1339000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1402885.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1370942.5</td>\n",
+              "      <td>736000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.783</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2444390.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3.32</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1800000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1600000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.051</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.187</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1891800.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1899200.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1895500.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>740000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.659</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3144634.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>4.25</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1450000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1200000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.077</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.306</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1561650.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1567200.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1564425.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>750000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.543</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2413908.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3.22</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1400000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1050000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.131</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.489</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1583400.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1563450.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1573425.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>760000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.436</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2259438.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2.97</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2400000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>900000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.244</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.749</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2985600.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1574100.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2279850.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>770000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.335</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3043600.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3.95</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1800000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>860000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.394</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2.274</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2509200.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1955640.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2232420.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>775000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.242</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2772666.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3.58</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1500000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>525000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.616</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3.183</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2424000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1671075.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2047537.5</td>\n",
+              "      <td>780000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.156</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2366953.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3.03</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1200000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>750000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.940</td>\n",
+              "      <td>5.093</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2328000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3819750.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3073875.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>785000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.075</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3304416.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>4.21</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>600000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>170000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3.104</td>\n",
+              "      <td>20.373</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1862400.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3463410.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2662905.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>790000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2662905.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3.37</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Reported (2)   Paid (3)  CDF Reported (4)  CDF Paid (5)  Ult Reported (6)  Ult Paid (7)  Initial Selected (8)  Population (9)  Trend to 7/1/08 (10)  Trended Ult (11)  Trended Pure Premium (12)\n",
+              "1998      900000.0   890000.0             1.015         1.046          913500.0      930940.0              922220.0        709000.0                 2.061         1900695.0                       2.68\n",
+              "1999     1200000.0  1170000.0             1.020         1.067         1224000.0     1248390.0             1236195.0        724000.0                 1.917         2369786.0                       3.27\n",
+              "2000     1300000.0  1265000.0             1.030         1.109         1339000.0     1402885.0             1370942.5        736000.0                 1.783         2444390.0                       3.32\n",
+              "2001     1800000.0  1600000.0             1.051         1.187         1891800.0     1899200.0             1895500.0        740000.0                 1.659         3144634.0                       4.25\n",
+              "2002     1450000.0  1200000.0             1.077         1.306         1561650.0     1567200.0             1564425.0        750000.0                 1.543         2413908.0                       3.22\n",
+              "2003     1400000.0  1050000.0             1.131         1.489         1583400.0     1563450.0             1573425.0        760000.0                 1.436         2259438.0                       2.97\n",
+              "2004     2400000.0   900000.0             1.244         1.749         2985600.0     1574100.0             2279850.0        770000.0                 1.335         3043600.0                       3.95\n",
+              "2005     1800000.0   860000.0             1.394         2.274         2509200.0     1955640.0             2232420.0        775000.0                 1.242         2772666.0                       3.58\n",
+              "2006     1500000.0   525000.0             1.616         3.183         2424000.0     1671075.0             2047537.5        780000.0                 1.156         2366953.0                       3.03\n",
+              "2007     1200000.0   750000.0             1.940         5.093         2328000.0     3819750.0             3073875.0        785000.0                 1.075         3304416.0                       4.21\n",
+              "2008      600000.0   170000.0             3.104        20.373         1862400.0     3463410.0             2662905.0        790000.0                 1.000         2662905.0                       3.37"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Items (13)-(16)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Avg 2000-2005 (13)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>3.55</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Avg 2000-2005 ex Hi/Lo (13)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>3.52</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Avg 2001-2006 (13)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>3.50</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Avg 2001-2006 ex Hi/Lo (13)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>3.44</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Selected Pure Premium (14)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>3.50</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims 2008 (15)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2,765,000</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Total Unpaid 2008 (16)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2,595,000</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>IBNR 2008 (16)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2,165,000</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "                            Items (13)-(16)\n",
+              "Avg 2000-2005 (13)                     3.55\n",
+              "Avg 2000-2005 ex Hi/Lo (13)            3.52\n",
+              "Avg 2001-2006 (13)                     3.50\n",
+              "Avg 2001-2006 ex Hi/Lo (13)            3.44\n",
+              "Selected Pure Premium (14)             3.50\n",
+              "Expected Claims 2008 (15)         2,765,000\n",
+              "Total Unpaid 2008 (16)            2,595,000\n",
+              "IBNR 2008 (16)                    2,165,000"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        }
+      ],
+      "source": [
+        "gl = cl.load_sample(\"friedland_gl_self_insurer\")\n",
+        "\n",
+        "reported_pattern = {\n",
+        "    12: 3.104, 24: 1.940, 36: 1.616, 48: 1.394, 60: 1.244, 72: 1.131,\n",
+        "    84: 1.077, 96: 1.051, 108: 1.030, 120: 1.020, 132: 1.015,\n",
+        "}\n",
+        "paid_pattern = {\n",
+        "    12: 20.373, 24: 5.093, 36: 3.183, 48: 2.274, 60: 1.749, 72: 1.489,\n",
+        "    84: 1.306, 96: 1.187, 108: 1.109, 120: 1.067, 132: 1.046,\n",
+        "}\n",
+        "\n",
+        "reported = cl.DevelopmentConstant(patterns=reported_pattern, style=\"cdf\").fit_transform(\n",
+        "    gl[\"Reported Claims\"]\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "paid = cl.DevelopmentConstant(patterns=paid_pattern, style=\"cdf\").fit_transform(\n",
+        "    gl[\"Paid Claims\"]\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "reported_ultimate = cl.Chainladder().fit(reported).ultimate_\n",
+        "paid_ultimate = cl.Chainladder().fit(paid).ultimate_\n",
+        "selected_ultimate = (reported_ultimate + paid_ultimate) / 2\n",
+        "population = gl[\"Population\"].latest_diagonal\n",
+        "trend_factors = np.round(\n",
+        "    cl.Trend(trends=[0.075], dates=[(\"2008-12-31\", \"1998-01-01\")])\n",
+        "    .fit(gl[\"Population\"])\n",
+        "    .trend_.latest_diagonal,\n",
+        "    3,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "trended_ult = np.round(selected_ultimate * trend_factors, 0)\n",
+        "pure_premium = np.round(trended_ult / population, 2)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "years = list(gl[\"Reported Claims\"].origin.year)\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s2 = pd.DataFrame(index=years)\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s2[\"Reported (2)\"] = as_series(gl[\"Reported Claims\"].latest_diagonal).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s2[\"Paid (3)\"] = as_series(gl[\"Paid Claims\"].latest_diagonal).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s2[\"CDF Reported (4)\"] = as_series(\n",
+        "    cl.model_diagnostics(cl.Chainladder().fit(reported))[\"CDF\"]\n",
+        ").values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s2[\"CDF Paid (5)\"] = as_series(\n",
+        "    cl.model_diagnostics(cl.Chainladder().fit(paid))[\"CDF\"]\n",
+        ").values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s2[\"Ult Reported (6)\"] = as_series(reported_ultimate).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s2[\"Ult Paid (7)\"] = as_series(paid_ultimate).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s2[\"Initial Selected (8)\"] = as_series(selected_ultimate).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s2[\"Population (9)\"] = as_series(population).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s2[\"Trend to 7/1/08 (10)\"] = as_series(trend_factors).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s2[\"Trended Ult (11)\"] = as_series(trended_ult).values\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s2[\"Trended Pure Premium (12)\"] = as_series(pure_premium).values\n",
+        "display(exhibit_i_s2)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "pp = as_series(pure_premium)\n",
+        "avg_00_05 = float(np.round(pp.loc[2000:2005].mean(), 2))\n",
+        "avg_00_05_xhl = float(np.round(avg_ex_high_low(pp.loc[2000:2005]), 2))\n",
+        "avg_01_06 = float(np.round(pp.loc[2001:2006].mean(), 2))\n",
+        "avg_01_06_xhl = float(np.round(avg_ex_high_low(pp.loc[2001:2006]), 2))\n",
+        "selected_pure_premium = 3.50\n",
+        "el_reported = cl.ExpectedLoss(apriori=selected_pure_premium).fit(\n",
+        "    reported, sample_weight=population\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "el_paid = cl.ExpectedLoss(apriori=selected_pure_premium).fit(\n",
+        "    paid, sample_weight=population\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "expected_2008 = float(el_reported.ultimate_.loc[:, :, \"2008\", :].sum())\n",
+        "unpaid_2008 = float(el_paid.ibnr_.loc[:, :, \"2008\", :].sum())\n",
+        "ibnr_2008 = float(el_reported.ibnr_.loc[:, :, \"2008\", :].sum())\n",
+        "\n",
+        "exhibit_i_s2_summary = pd.Series(\n",
+        "    {\n",
+        "        \"Avg 2000-2005 (13)\": avg_00_05,\n",
+        "        \"Avg 2000-2005 ex Hi/Lo (13)\": avg_00_05_xhl,\n",
+        "        \"Avg 2001-2006 (13)\": avg_01_06,\n",
+        "        \"Avg 2001-2006 ex Hi/Lo (13)\": avg_01_06_xhl,\n",
+        "        \"Selected Pure Premium (14)\": selected_pure_premium,\n",
+        "        \"Expected Claims 2008 (15)\": expected_2008,\n",
+        "        \"Total Unpaid 2008 (16)\": unpaid_2008,\n",
+        "        \"IBNR 2008 (16)\": ibnr_2008,\n",
+        "    },\n",
+        "    name=\"Items (13)-(16)\",\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "display(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s2_summary.map(\n",
+        "        lambda x: f\"{x:,.0f}\" if abs(x) >= 100 else f\"{x:.2f}\"\n",
+        "    ).to_frame()\n",
+        ")\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 5,
+      "id": "4457a327",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.696381Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.696194Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.703635Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.702954Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [],
+      "source": [
+        "# Exhibit I Sheet 2 — reconcile to Friedland PDF p141\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s2[\"Reported (2)\"],\n",
+        "    [900000, 1200000, 1300000, 1800000, 1450000, 1400000, 2400000, 1800000, 1500000, 1200000, 600000],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s2[\"Paid (3)\"],\n",
+        "    [890000, 1170000, 1265000, 1600000, 1200000, 1050000, 900000, 860000, 525000, 750000, 170000],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s2[\"Ult Reported (6)\"],\n",
+        "    [913500, 1224000, 1339000, 1891800, 1561650, 1583400, 2985600, 2509200, 2424000, 2328000, 1862400],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s2[\"Ult Paid (7)\"],\n",
+        "    [930940, 1248390, 1402885, 1899200, 1567200, 1563450, 1574100, 1955640, 1671075, 3819750, 3463410],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s2[\"Population (9)\"],\n",
+        "    [709000, 724000, 736000, 740000, 750000, 760000, 770000, 775000, 780000, 785000, 790000],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s2[\"Trend to 7/1/08 (10)\"],\n",
+        "    [2.061, 1.917, 1.783, 1.659, 1.543, 1.436, 1.335, 1.242, 1.156, 1.075, 1],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s2[\"Trended Ult (11)\"],\n",
+        "    [1900695, 2369786, 2444390, 3144635, 2413908, 2259438, 3043600, 2772666, 2366953, 3304416, 2662905],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_i_s2[\"Trended Pure Premium (12)\"],\n",
+        "    [2.68, 3.27, 3.32, 4.25, 3.22, 2.97, 3.95, 3.58, 3.03, 4.21, 3.37],\n",
+        "    atol=0.01,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(avg_00_05, 3.55)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(avg_00_05_xhl, 3.52)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(avg_01_06, 3.50)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(avg_01_06_xhl, 3.45, atol=0.011)  # PDF 3.45; 3.445 rounds to 3.44\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(expected_2008, 2765000)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(unpaid_2008, 2595000)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(ibnr_2008, 2165000)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "markdown",
+      "id": "192b4b94",
+      "metadata": {},
+      "source": [
+        "## P142 (Exhibit II Sheet 1)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 6,
+      "id": "37cef2cb",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.706987Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.706774Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.818404Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.817888Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Paid (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>CDF Reported (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>CDF Paid (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Ult Reported (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Ult Paid (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Initial Selected (8)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (9)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated Claim Ratio (10)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Selected Claim Ratio (11)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (12)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1998</th>\n",
+              "      <td>47742304.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47644187.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.002</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47742304.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47739475.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47740890.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>68574209.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.696</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>51430657.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1999</th>\n",
+              "      <td>51185767.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>51000534.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.004</td>\n",
+              "      <td>51185767.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>51204536.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>51195152.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>68544981.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.747</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>51408736.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>54837929.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>54533225.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.001</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.006</td>\n",
+              "      <td>54892767.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>54860424.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>54876596.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>68907977.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.796</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>51680983.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>56299562.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>55878421.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.003</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.011</td>\n",
+              "      <td>56468461.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>56493084.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>56480772.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>72544955.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.779</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>54408716.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>58592712.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>57807215.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.006</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.020</td>\n",
+              "      <td>58944268.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>58963359.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>58953814.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>79228887.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.744</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>59421665.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>57565344.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>55930654.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.011</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.040</td>\n",
+              "      <td>58198563.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>58167880.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>58183221.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>86643542.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.672</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
+              "      <td>56318302.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>56976657.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>53774672.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.023</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.085</td>\n",
+              "      <td>58287120.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>58345519.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>58316320.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>91763523.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.636</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
+              "      <td>59646290.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>56786410.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>50644994.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.051</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.184</td>\n",
+              "      <td>59682517.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>59963673.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>59823095.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>94115312.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.636</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
+              "      <td>61174953.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>54641339.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>43606497.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.110</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.404</td>\n",
+              "      <td>60651886.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>61223522.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>60937704.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>95272279.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.640</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
+              "      <td>61926981.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>48853563.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>27229969.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.292</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2.390</td>\n",
+              "      <td>63118803.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>65079626.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>64099215.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>95176240.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.673</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
+              "      <td>61864556.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Reported (2)    Paid (3)  CDF Reported (4)  CDF Paid (5)  Ult Reported (6)  Ult Paid (7)  Initial Selected (8)  Earned Premium (9)  Estimated Claim Ratio (10)  Selected Claim Ratio (11)  Expected Claims (12)\n",
+              "1998    47742304.0  47644187.0             1.000         1.002        47742304.0    47739475.0            47740890.0          68574209.0                       0.696                       0.75            51430657.0\n",
+              "1999    51185767.0  51000534.0             1.000         1.004        51185767.0    51204536.0            51195152.0          68544981.0                       0.747                       0.75            51408736.0\n",
+              "2000    54837929.0  54533225.0             1.001         1.006        54892767.0    54860424.0            54876596.0          68907977.0                       0.796                       0.75            51680983.0\n",
+              "2001    56299562.0  55878421.0             1.003         1.011        56468461.0    56493084.0            56480772.0          72544955.0                       0.779                       0.75            54408716.0\n",
+              "2002    58592712.0  57807215.0             1.006         1.020        58944268.0    58963359.0            58953814.0          79228887.0                       0.744                       0.75            59421665.0\n",
+              "2003    57565344.0  55930654.0             1.011         1.040        58198563.0    58167880.0            58183221.0          86643542.0                       0.672                       0.65            56318302.0\n",
+              "2004    56976657.0  53774672.0             1.023         1.085        58287120.0    58345519.0            58316320.0          91763523.0                       0.636                       0.65            59646290.0\n",
+              "2005    56786410.0  50644994.0             1.051         1.184        59682517.0    59963673.0            59823095.0          94115312.0                       0.636                       0.65            61174953.0\n",
+              "2006    54641339.0  43606497.0             1.110         1.404        60651886.0    61223522.0            60937704.0          95272279.0                       0.640                       0.65            61926981.0\n",
+              "2007    48853563.0  27229969.0             1.292         2.390        63118803.0    65079626.0            64099215.0          95176240.0                       0.673                       0.65            61864556.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        }
+      ],
+      "source": [
+        "ia = cl.load_sample(\"friedland_us_industry_auto\")\n",
+        "\n",
+        "reported_pattern = {\n",
+        "    12: 1.292, 24: 1.110, 36: 1.051, 48: 1.023, 60: 1.011,\n",
+        "    72: 1.006, 84: 1.003, 96: 1.001, 108: 1.000, 120: 1.000,\n",
+        "}\n",
+        "paid_pattern = {\n",
+        "    12: 2.390, 24: 1.404, 36: 1.184, 48: 1.085, 60: 1.040,\n",
+        "    72: 1.020, 84: 1.011, 96: 1.006, 108: 1.004, 120: 1.002,\n",
+        "}\n",
+        "\n",
+        "reported = cl.DevelopmentConstant(patterns=reported_pattern, style=\"cdf\").fit_transform(\n",
+        "    ia[\"Reported Claims\"]\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "paid = cl.DevelopmentConstant(patterns=paid_pattern, style=\"cdf\").fit_transform(\n",
+        "    ia[\"Paid Claims\"]\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "reported_ultimate = cl.Chainladder().fit(reported).ultimate_\n",
+        "paid_ultimate = cl.Chainladder().fit(paid).ultimate_\n",
+        "selected_ultimate = np.round((reported_ultimate + paid_ultimate) / 2, 0)\n",
+        "earned_premium = ia[\"Earned Premium\"].latest_diagonal\n",
+        "estimated_claim_ratios = np.round(selected_ultimate / earned_premium, 3)\n",
+        "selected_claim_ratio = np.array(\n",
+        "    [0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65]\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "sample_weight = earned_premium * selected_claim_ratio.reshape(1, 1, -1, 1)\n",
+        "el_reported = cl.ExpectedLoss(apriori=1).fit(\n",
+        "    ia[\"Reported Claims\"], sample_weight=sample_weight\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "el_paid = cl.ExpectedLoss(apriori=1).fit(\n",
+        "    ia[\"Paid Claims\"], sample_weight=sample_weight\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "expected_claims = np.round(el_reported.ultimate_, 0)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "years = list(ia[\"Reported Claims\"].origin.year)\n",
+        "exhibit_ii_s1 = pd.DataFrame(index=years)\n",
+        "exhibit_ii_s1[\"Reported (2)\"] = as_series(ia[\"Reported Claims\"].latest_diagonal).values\n",
+        "exhibit_ii_s1[\"Paid (3)\"] = as_series(ia[\"Paid Claims\"].latest_diagonal).values\n",
+        "exhibit_ii_s1[\"CDF Reported (4)\"] = as_series(\n",
+        "    cl.model_diagnostics(cl.Chainladder().fit(reported))[\"CDF\"]\n",
+        ").values\n",
+        "exhibit_ii_s1[\"CDF Paid (5)\"] = as_series(\n",
+        "    cl.model_diagnostics(cl.Chainladder().fit(paid))[\"CDF\"]\n",
+        ").values\n",
+        "exhibit_ii_s1[\"Ult Reported (6)\"] = as_series(np.round(reported_ultimate, 0)).values\n",
+        "exhibit_ii_s1[\"Ult Paid (7)\"] = as_series(np.round(paid_ultimate, 0)).values\n",
+        "exhibit_ii_s1[\"Initial Selected (8)\"] = as_series(selected_ultimate).values\n",
+        "exhibit_ii_s1[\"Earned Premium (9)\"] = as_series(earned_premium).values\n",
+        "exhibit_ii_s1[\"Estimated Claim Ratio (10)\"] = as_series(estimated_claim_ratios).values\n",
+        "exhibit_ii_s1[\"Selected Claim Ratio (11)\"] = selected_claim_ratio\n",
+        "exhibit_ii_s1[\"Expected Claims (12)\"] = as_series(expected_claims).values\n",
+        "display(exhibit_ii_s1)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 7,
+      "id": "a62265b9",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.821111Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.820985Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.827979Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.827354Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [],
+      "source": [
+        "# Exhibit II Sheet 1 — reconcile to Friedland PDF p142\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_ii_s1[\"Reported (2)\"],\n",
+        "    [47742304, 51185767, 54837929, 56299562, 58592712, 57565344, 56976657, 56786410, 54641339, 48853563],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_ii_s1[\"Paid (3)\"],\n",
+        "    [47644187, 51000534, 54533225, 55878421, 57807215, 55930654, 53774672, 50644994, 43606497, 27229969],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_ii_s1[\"Ult Reported (6)\"],\n",
+        "    [47742304, 51185767, 54892767, 56468461, 58944268, 58198563, 58287120, 59682517, 60651886, 63118803],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_ii_s1[\"Ult Paid (7)\"],\n",
+        "    [47739475, 51204536, 54860424, 56493084, 58963359, 58167880, 58345519, 59963673, 61223522, 65079626],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_ii_s1[\"Initial Selected (8)\"],\n",
+        "    [47740890, 51195152, 54876596, 56480772, 58953814, 58183221, 58316320, 59823095, 60937704, 64099215],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_ii_s1[\"Earned Premium (9)\"],\n",
+        "    [68574209, 68544981, 68907977, 72544955, 79228887, 86643542, 91763523, 94115312, 95272279, 95176240],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_ii_s1[\"Estimated Claim Ratio (10)\"],\n",
+        "    [0.696, 0.747, 0.796, 0.779, 0.744, 0.672, 0.636, 0.636, 0.640, 0.673],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_ii_s1[\"Expected Claims (12)\"],\n",
+        "    [51430657, 51408736, 51680983, 54408716, 59421665, 56318302, 59646290, 61174953, 61926981, 61864556],\n",
+        ")\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "markdown",
+      "id": "c14233ed",
+      "metadata": {},
+      "source": [
+        "## P143 (Exhibit II Sheet 2)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 8,
+      "id": "fc3209f1",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.830544Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.830274Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.850125Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.849826Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Paid (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Case Outstanding (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Total Unpaid (7)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1998</th>\n",
+              "      <td>47742304.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47644187.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>51430657.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>98117.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3688353.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3786470.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1999</th>\n",
+              "      <td>51185767.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>51000534.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>51408736.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>185233.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>222969.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>408202.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>54837929.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>54533225.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>51680983.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>304704.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-3156946.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-2852242.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>56299562.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>55878421.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>54408716.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>421141.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-1890846.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-1469705.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>58592712.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>57807215.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>59421665.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>785497.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>828953.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1614450.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>57565344.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>55930654.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>56318302.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1634690.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-1247042.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>387648.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>56976657.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>53774672.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>59646290.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3201985.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2669633.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>5871618.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>56786410.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>50644994.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>61174953.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>6141416.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>4388543.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>10529959.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>54641339.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>43606497.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>61926981.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>11034842.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>7285642.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>18320484.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>48853563.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>27229969.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>61864556.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>21623594.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>13010993.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>34634587.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Reported (2)    Paid (3)  Expected Claims (4)  Case Outstanding (5)    IBNR (6)  Total Unpaid (7)\n",
+              "1998    47742304.0  47644187.0           51430657.0               98117.0   3688353.0         3786470.0\n",
+              "1999    51185767.0  51000534.0           51408736.0              185233.0    222969.0          408202.0\n",
+              "2000    54837929.0  54533225.0           51680983.0              304704.0  -3156946.0        -2852242.0\n",
+              "2001    56299562.0  55878421.0           54408716.0              421141.0  -1890846.0        -1469705.0\n",
+              "2002    58592712.0  57807215.0           59421665.0              785497.0    828953.0         1614450.0\n",
+              "2003    57565344.0  55930654.0           56318302.0             1634690.0  -1247042.0          387648.0\n",
+              "2004    56976657.0  53774672.0           59646290.0             3201985.0   2669633.0         5871618.0\n",
+              "2005    56786410.0  50644994.0           61174953.0             6141416.0   4388543.0        10529959.0\n",
+              "2006    54641339.0  43606497.0           61926981.0            11034842.0   7285642.0        18320484.0\n",
+              "2007    48853563.0  27229969.0           61864556.0            21623594.0  13010993.0        34634587.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Paid (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Case Outstanding (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Total Unpaid (7)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Total</th>\n",
+              "      <td>543481587.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>498050368.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>569281839.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>45431219.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>25800252.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>71231471.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "       Reported (2)     Paid (3)  Expected Claims (4)  Case Outstanding (5)    IBNR (6)  Total Unpaid (7)\n",
+              "Total   543481587.0  498050368.0          569281839.0            45431219.0  25800252.0        71231471.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        }
+      ],
+      "source": [
+        "exhibit_ii_s2 = unpaid_exhibit(ia[\"Reported Claims\"], ia[\"Paid Claims\"], expected_claims)\n",
+        "display(exhibit_ii_s2)\n",
+        "display(exhibit_ii_s2.sum().rename(\"Total\").to_frame().T)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 9,
+      "id": "e206f932",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.852655Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.852317Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.858563Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.857022Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [],
+      "source": [
+        "# Exhibit II Sheet 2 — reconcile to Friedland PDF p143\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_ii_s2[\"Case Outstanding (5)\"],\n",
+        "    [98117, 185233, 304704, 421141, 785497, 1634690, 3201985, 6141416, 11034842, 21623594],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_ii_s2[\"IBNR (6)\"],\n",
+        "    [3688353, 222969, -3156946, -1890846, 828953, -1247042, 2669633, 4388543, 7285642, 13010993],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_ii_s2[\"Total Unpaid (7)\"],\n",
+        "    [3786470, 408202, -2852242, -1469705, 1614450, 387648, 5871618, 10529959, 18320484, 34634587],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_ii_s2[\"Reported (2)\"].sum(), 543481587)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_ii_s2[\"Paid (3)\"].sum(), 498050368)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_ii_s2[\"Expected Claims (4)\"].sum(), 569281839)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_ii_s2[\"Case Outstanding (5)\"].sum(), 45431219)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_ii_s2[\"IBNR (6)\"].sum(), 25800252)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_ii_s2[\"Total Unpaid (7)\"].sum(), 71231471)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "markdown",
+      "id": "27f7e58a",
+      "metadata": {},
+      "source": [
+        "## P144 (Exhibit III Sheet 1)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 10,
+      "id": "d62ffc9c",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.860893Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.860718Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.986704Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.985327Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Paid (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>CDF Reported (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>CDF Paid (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Ult Reported (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Ult Paid (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Initial Selected (8)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (9)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated Claim Ratio (10)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Selected Claim Ratio (11)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (12)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1998</th>\n",
+              "      <td>15822.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15822.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.010</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15822.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15980.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15901.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>20000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.795</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.783</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15660.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1999</th>\n",
+              "      <td>25107.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>24817.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.999</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.014</td>\n",
+              "      <td>25082.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>25164.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>25123.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>31500.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.798</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.783</td>\n",
+              "      <td>24664.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>37246.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>36782.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.992</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.031</td>\n",
+              "      <td>36948.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>37922.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>37435.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>45000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.832</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.783</td>\n",
+              "      <td>35235.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>38798.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>38519.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.992</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.054</td>\n",
+              "      <td>38488.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>40599.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39543.5</td>\n",
+              "      <td>50000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.791</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.783</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39150.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>48169.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>44437.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.003</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.116</td>\n",
+              "      <td>48314.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>49592.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>48953.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>61183.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.800</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.783</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47906.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>44373.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39320.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.013</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.268</td>\n",
+              "      <td>44950.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>49858.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47404.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>69175.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.685</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.783</td>\n",
+              "      <td>54164.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>70288.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>52811.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.064</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.525</td>\n",
+              "      <td>74786.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>80537.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>77661.5</td>\n",
+              "      <td>99322.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.782</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.871</td>\n",
+              "      <td>86509.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>70655.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>40026.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.085</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2.007</td>\n",
+              "      <td>76661.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>80332.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>78496.5</td>\n",
+              "      <td>138151.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.568</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.783</td>\n",
+              "      <td>108172.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>48804.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>22819.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.196</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3.160</td>\n",
+              "      <td>58370.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>72108.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>65239.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>107578.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.606</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.658</td>\n",
+              "      <td>70786.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>31732.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>11865.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.512</td>\n",
+              "      <td>6.569</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47979.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>77941.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>62960.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>62438.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.008</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.638</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39835.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>18632.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3409.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2.551</td>\n",
+              "      <td>21.999</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47530.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>74995.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>61262.5</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47797.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.282</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.825</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39433.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Reported (2)  Paid (3)  CDF Reported (4)  CDF Paid (5)  Ult Reported (6)  Ult Paid (7)  Initial Selected (8)  Earned Premium (9)  Estimated Claim Ratio (10)  Selected Claim Ratio (11)  Expected Claims (12)\n",
+              "1998       15822.0   15822.0             1.000         1.010           15822.0       15980.0               15901.0             20000.0                       0.795                      0.783               15660.0\n",
+              "1999       25107.0   24817.0             0.999         1.014           25082.0       25164.0               25123.0             31500.0                       0.798                      0.783               24664.0\n",
+              "2000       37246.0   36782.0             0.992         1.031           36948.0       37922.0               37435.0             45000.0                       0.832                      0.783               35235.0\n",
+              "2001       38798.0   38519.0             0.992         1.054           38488.0       40599.0               39543.5             50000.0                       0.791                      0.783               39150.0\n",
+              "2002       48169.0   44437.0             1.003         1.116           48314.0       49592.0               48953.0             61183.0                       0.800                      0.783               47906.0\n",
+              "2003       44373.0   39320.0             1.013         1.268           44950.0       49858.0               47404.0             69175.0                       0.685                      0.783               54164.0\n",
+              "2004       70288.0   52811.0             1.064         1.525           74786.0       80537.0               77661.5             99322.0                       0.782                      0.871               86509.0\n",
+              "2005       70655.0   40026.0             1.085         2.007           76661.0       80332.0               78496.5            138151.0                       0.568                      0.783              108172.0\n",
+              "2006       48804.0   22819.0             1.196         3.160           58370.0       72108.0               65239.0            107578.0                       0.606                      0.658               70786.0\n",
+              "2007       31732.0   11865.0             1.512         6.569           47979.0       77941.0               62960.0             62438.0                       1.008                      0.638               39835.0\n",
+              "2008       18632.0    3409.0             2.551        21.999           47530.0       74995.0               61262.5             47797.0                       1.282                      0.825               39433.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "name": "stdout",
+          "output_type": "stream",
+          "text": [
+            "Average estimated claim ratio 1998-2003: 0.783\n"
+          ]
+        }
+      ],
+      "source": [
+        "xyz = cl.load_sample(\"friedland_xyz_auto_bi\")\n",
+        "\n",
+        "reported_pattern = {\n",
+        "    12: 2.551, 24: 1.512, 36: 1.196, 48: 1.085, 60: 1.064, 72: 1.013,\n",
+        "    84: 1.003, 96: 0.992, 108: 0.992, 120: 0.999, 132: 1.000,\n",
+        "}\n",
+        "paid_pattern = {\n",
+        "    12: 21.999, 24: 6.569, 36: 3.160, 48: 2.007, 60: 1.525, 72: 1.268,\n",
+        "    84: 1.116, 96: 1.054, 108: 1.031, 120: 1.014, 132: 1.010,\n",
+        "}\n",
+        "\n",
+        "reported = cl.DevelopmentConstant(patterns=reported_pattern, style=\"cdf\").fit_transform(\n",
+        "    xyz[\"Reported Claims\"]\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "paid = cl.DevelopmentConstant(patterns=paid_pattern, style=\"cdf\").fit_transform(\n",
+        "    xyz[\"Paid Claims\"]\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "reported_ultimate = np.round(cl.Chainladder().fit(reported).ultimate_, 0)\n",
+        "paid_ultimate = np.round(cl.Chainladder().fit(paid).ultimate_, 0)\n",
+        "selected_ultimate = (reported_ultimate + paid_ultimate) / 2\n",
+        "earned_premium = xyz[\"Earned Premium\"].latest_diagonal\n",
+        "estimated_claim_ratios = np.round(selected_ultimate / earned_premium, 3)\n",
+        "avg_98_03 = float(np.round((selected_ultimate / earned_premium).iloc[:, :, 0:6, :].mean(), 3))\n",
+        "selected_claim_ratio = np.array(\n",
+        "    [0.783, 0.783, 0.783, 0.783, 0.783, 0.783, 0.871, 0.783, 0.658, 0.638, 0.825]\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "sample_weight = earned_premium * selected_claim_ratio.reshape(1, 1, -1, 1)\n",
+        "el_reported = cl.ExpectedLoss(apriori=1).fit(\n",
+        "    xyz[\"Reported Claims\"], sample_weight=sample_weight\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "el_paid = cl.ExpectedLoss(apriori=1).fit(\n",
+        "    xyz[\"Paid Claims\"], sample_weight=sample_weight\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "expected_claims = np.round(el_reported.ultimate_, 0)\n",
+        "xyz_reported_ultimate = reported_ultimate\n",
+        "xyz_paid_ultimate = paid_ultimate\n",
+        "xyz_expected_claims = expected_claims\n",
+        "\n",
+        "years = list(xyz[\"Reported Claims\"].origin.year)\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s1 = pd.DataFrame(index=years)\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s1[\"Reported (2)\"] = as_series(xyz[\"Reported Claims\"].latest_diagonal).values\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s1[\"Paid (3)\"] = as_series(xyz[\"Paid Claims\"].latest_diagonal).values\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s1[\"CDF Reported (4)\"] = as_series(\n",
+        "    cl.model_diagnostics(cl.Chainladder().fit(reported))[\"CDF\"]\n",
+        ").values\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s1[\"CDF Paid (5)\"] = as_series(\n",
+        "    cl.model_diagnostics(cl.Chainladder().fit(paid))[\"CDF\"]\n",
+        ").values\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s1[\"Ult Reported (6)\"] = as_series(reported_ultimate).values\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s1[\"Ult Paid (7)\"] = as_series(paid_ultimate).values\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s1[\"Initial Selected (8)\"] = as_series(selected_ultimate).values\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s1[\"Earned Premium (9)\"] = as_series(earned_premium).values\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s1[\"Estimated Claim Ratio (10)\"] = as_series(estimated_claim_ratios).values\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s1[\"Selected Claim Ratio (11)\"] = selected_claim_ratio\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s1[\"Expected Claims (12)\"] = as_series(expected_claims).values\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s1)\n",
+        "print(f\"Average estimated claim ratio 1998-2003: {avg_98_03}\")\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 11,
+      "id": "762b32c8",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.989109Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.988994Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.996706Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:57.994993Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [],
+      "source": [
+        "# Exhibit III Sheet 1 — reconcile to Friedland PDF p144\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s1[\"Reported (2)\"],\n",
+        "    [15822, 25107, 37246, 38798, 48169, 44373, 70288, 70655, 48804, 31732, 18632],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s1[\"Paid (3)\"],\n",
+        "    [15822, 24817, 36782, 38519, 44437, 39320, 52811, 40026, 22819, 11865, 3409],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s1[\"Ult Reported (6)\"],\n",
+        "    [15822, 25082, 36948, 38487, 48313, 44950, 74787, 76661, 58370, 47979, 47530],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s1[\"Ult Paid (7)\"],\n",
+        "    [15980, 25164, 37922, 40600, 49592, 49858, 80537, 80333, 72108, 77941, 74995],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s1[\"Initial Selected (8)\"],\n",
+        "    [15901, 25123, 37435, 39543, 48953, 47404, 77662, 78497, 65239, 62960, 61262],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s1[\"Earned Premium (9)\"],\n",
+        "    [20000, 31500, 45000, 50000, 61183, 69175, 99322, 138151, 107578, 62438, 47797],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s1[\"Estimated Claim Ratio (10)\"],\n",
+        "    [0.795, 0.798, 0.832, 0.791, 0.800, 0.685, 0.782, 0.568, 0.606, 1.008, 1.282],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(avg_98_03, 0.783)\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s1[\"Expected Claims (12)\"],\n",
+        "    [15660, 24665, 35235, 39150, 47906, 54164, 86509, 108172, 70786, 39835, 39433],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "markdown",
+      "id": "86e386b0",
+      "metadata": {},
+      "source": [
+        "## P145 (Exhibit III Sheet 2)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 12,
+      "id": "6a86701a",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.001475Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.001212Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.112616Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.112270Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Initial Selected Ult (2)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>48953.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>47404.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>77662.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>78496.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>65239.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>62960.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>61262.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Initial Selected Ult (2)\n",
+              "2002                   48953.0\n",
+              "2003                   47404.0\n",
+              "2004                   77662.0\n",
+              "2005                   78496.0\n",
+              "2006                   65239.0\n",
+              "2007                   62960.0\n",
+              "2008                   61262.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Trend to 2004 (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Trend to 2005 (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Trend to 2006 (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Trend to 2007 (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Trend to 2008 (7)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.070</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.106</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.144</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.183</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.224</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.034</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.070</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.106</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.144</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.183</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.034</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.070</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.106</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.144</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.967</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.034</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.070</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.106</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.935</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.967</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.034</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.070</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.904</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.935</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.967</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.034</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.874</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.904</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.935</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.967</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Trend to 2004 (3)  Trend to 2005 (4)  Trend to 2006 (5)  Trend to 2007 (6)  Trend to 2008 (7)\n",
+              "2002              1.070              1.106              1.144              1.183              1.224\n",
+              "2003              1.034              1.070              1.106              1.144              1.183\n",
+              "2004              1.000              1.034              1.070              1.106              1.144\n",
+              "2005              0.967              1.000              1.034              1.070              1.106\n",
+              "2006              0.935              0.967              1.000              1.034              1.070\n",
+              "2007              0.904              0.935              0.967              1.000              1.034\n",
+              "2008              0.874              0.904              0.935              0.967              1.000"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Tort to 2004 (8)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Tort to 2005 (9)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Tort to 2006 (10)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Tort to 2007 (11)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Tort to 2008 (12)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.893</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.67</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.67</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.893</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.67</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.67</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.893</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.67</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.67</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.893</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.67</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.67</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.119</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.119</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.493</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.493</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.333</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.00</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.00</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.493</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.493</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.333</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.00</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.00</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Tort to 2004 (8)  Tort to 2005 (9)  Tort to 2006 (10)  Tort to 2007 (11)  Tort to 2008 (12)\n",
+              "2002             1.000             1.000              0.893               0.67               0.67\n",
+              "2003             1.000             1.000              0.893               0.67               0.67\n",
+              "2004             1.000             1.000              0.893               0.67               0.67\n",
+              "2005             1.000             1.000              0.893               0.67               0.67\n",
+              "2006             1.119             1.119              1.000               0.75               0.75\n",
+              "2007             1.493             1.493              1.333               1.00               1.00\n",
+              "2008             1.493             1.493              1.333               1.00               1.00"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (13)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>61183.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>69175.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>99322.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>138151.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>107578.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>62438.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>47797.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Earned Premium (13)\n",
+              "2002              61183.0\n",
+              "2003              69175.0\n",
+              "2004              99322.0\n",
+              "2005             138151.0\n",
+              "2006             107578.0\n",
+              "2007              62438.0\n",
+              "2008              47797.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Rate to 2004 (14)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Rate to 2005 (15)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Rate to 2006 (16)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Rate to 2007 (17)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Rate to 2008 (18)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.129</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.298</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.428</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.142</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.914</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.075</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.236</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.360</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.088</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.870</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.150</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.265</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.012</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.810</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.870</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.100</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.880</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.704</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.791</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.909</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.800</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.640</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.988</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.136</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.250</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.800</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.235</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.420</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.562</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.250</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.000</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Rate to 2004 (14)  Rate to 2005 (15)  Rate to 2006 (16)  Rate to 2007 (17)  Rate to 2008 (18)\n",
+              "2002              1.129              1.298              1.428              1.142              0.914\n",
+              "2003              1.075              1.236              1.360              1.088              0.870\n",
+              "2004              1.000              1.150              1.265              1.012              0.810\n",
+              "2005              0.870              1.000              1.100              0.880              0.704\n",
+              "2006              0.791              0.909              1.000              0.800              0.640\n",
+              "2007              0.988              1.136              1.250              1.000              0.800\n",
+              "2008              1.235              1.420              1.562              1.250              1.000"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>OL Claim Ratio 2004 (19)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>OL Claim Ratio 2005 (20)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>OL Claim Ratio 2006 (21)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>OL Claim Ratio 2007 (22)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>OL Claim Ratio 2008 (23)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.758</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.682</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.573</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.555</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.718</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.659</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.593</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.498</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.483</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.624</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.782</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.703</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.591</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.573</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.740</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.632</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.568</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.477</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.463</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.598</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.803</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.722</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.606</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.588</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.760</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.377</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.238</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.040</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.008</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.304</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.354</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.217</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.022</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.991</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.282</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      OL Claim Ratio 2004 (19)  OL Claim Ratio 2005 (20)  OL Claim Ratio 2006 (21)  OL Claim Ratio 2007 (22)  OL Claim Ratio 2008 (23)\n",
+              "2002                     0.758                     0.682                     0.573                     0.555                     0.718\n",
+              "2003                     0.659                     0.593                     0.498                     0.483                     0.624\n",
+              "2004                     0.782                     0.703                     0.591                     0.573                     0.740\n",
+              "2005                     0.632                     0.568                     0.477                     0.463                     0.598\n",
+              "2006                     0.803                     0.722                     0.606                     0.588                     0.760\n",
+              "2007                     1.377                     1.238                     1.040                     1.008                     1.304\n",
+              "2008                     1.354                     1.217                     1.022                     0.991                     1.282"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>All Years (24)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.909</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.818</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.687</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.666</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.861</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>All Years ex Hi/Lo (24)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.871</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.783</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.658</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.638</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.825</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Latest 5 (24)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.989</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.890</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.747</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.725</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.937</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Latest 3 (24)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1.178</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.059</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.890</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.863</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.115</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Selected (25)</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.871</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.783</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.658</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.638</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.825</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "                          2004   2005   2006   2007   2008\n",
+              "All Years (24)           0.909  0.818  0.687  0.666  0.861\n",
+              "All Years ex Hi/Lo (24)  0.871  0.783  0.658  0.638  0.825\n",
+              "Latest 5 (24)            0.989  0.890  0.747  0.725  0.937\n",
+              "Latest 3 (24)            1.178  1.059  0.890  0.863  1.115\n",
+              "Selected (25)            0.871  0.783  0.658  0.638  0.825"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        }
+      ],
+      "source": [
+        "def relative_level_triangle(base, years=range(2004, 2009)):\n",
+        "    pieces = []\n",
+        "    for year in years:\n",
+        "        rel = base / base.loc[:, :, str(year), :]\n",
+        "        rel.columns = [str(year)]\n",
+        "        pieces.append(rel)\n",
+        "    return cl.concat(pieces, axis=1)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "\n",
+        "selected_view = np.round(selected_ultimate.iloc[:, :, 4:, :], 0)\n",
+        "earned_premium_view = earned_premium.iloc[:, :, 4:, :]\n",
+        "\n",
+        "base_trend_2008 = (\n",
+        "    cl.Trend(trends=[0.03425], dates=[(\"2008-12-31\", \"2002-01-01\")])\n",
+        "    .fit(selected_view)\n",
+        "    .trend_\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "severity_trend_adjustment = relative_level_triangle(base_trend_2008)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "base_tort_2008 = (\n",
+        "    cl.Trend(\n",
+        "        trends=[-0.25, 0.670 / 0.75 - 1],\n",
+        "        dates=[(\"2007-12-31\", \"2006-12-31\"), (\"2006-12-31\", \"2005-12-31\")],\n",
+        "    )\n",
+        "    .fit(selected_view)\n",
+        "    .trend_\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "tort_reform_adjustment = relative_level_triangle(base_tort_2008)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "rate_changes = [0, 0.05, 0.075, 0.15, 0.1, -0.2, -0.2]\n",
+        "olf = cl.parallelogram_olf(\n",
+        "    rate_changes,\n",
+        "    pd.to_datetime([f\"{y}-01-01\" for y in range(2002, 2009)]),\n",
+        "    vertical_line=True,\n",
+        ")[\"OLF\"].values\n",
+        "base_rate = selected_view * 0 + olf.reshape(selected_view.shape)\n",
+        "rate_level_adjustment = relative_level_triangle(base_rate)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "adjusted_claim_ratios = (\n",
+        "    selected_view * severity_trend_adjustment * tort_reform_adjustment\n",
+        ") / (earned_premium_view * rate_level_adjustment)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "ay = list(range(2002, 2009))\n",
+        "ty = list(range(2004, 2009))\n",
+        "\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s2_ult = pd.DataFrame(\n",
+        "    {\"Initial Selected Ult (2)\": as_series(selected_view).values}, index=ay\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s2_ult)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s2_trend = pd.DataFrame(\n",
+        "    np.round(severity_trend_adjustment.values.squeeze().T, 3),\n",
+        "    index=ay,\n",
+        "    columns=[f\"Trend to {y} ({n})\" for y, n in zip(ty, [3, 4, 5, 6, 7])],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s2_trend)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s2_tort = pd.DataFrame(\n",
+        "    np.round(tort_reform_adjustment.values.squeeze().T, 3),\n",
+        "    index=ay,\n",
+        "    columns=[f\"Tort to {y} ({n})\" for y, n in zip(ty, [8, 9, 10, 11, 12])],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s2_tort)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s2_prem = pd.DataFrame(\n",
+        "    {\"Earned Premium (13)\": as_series(earned_premium_view).values}, index=ay\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s2_prem)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s2_rate = pd.DataFrame(\n",
+        "    np.round(rate_level_adjustment.values.squeeze().T, 3),\n",
+        "    index=ay,\n",
+        "    columns=[f\"Rate to {y} ({n})\" for y, n in zip(ty, [14, 15, 16, 17, 18])],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s2_rate)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s2_lr = pd.DataFrame(\n",
+        "    np.round(adjusted_claim_ratios.values.squeeze().T, 3),\n",
+        "    index=ay,\n",
+        "    columns=[f\"OL Claim Ratio {y} ({n})\" for y, n in zip(ty, [19, 20, 21, 22, 23])],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s2_lr)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "vals = adjusted_claim_ratios.values.squeeze()\n",
+        "all_years = adjusted_claim_ratios.mean(axis=\"origin\").values.squeeze()\n",
+        "ex_high_low = (vals.sum(axis=1) - vals.max(axis=1) - vals.min(axis=1)) / 5\n",
+        "latest_5 = (\n",
+        "    adjusted_claim_ratios.loc[:, :, \"2004\":, :].mean(axis=\"origin\").values.squeeze()\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "latest_3 = (\n",
+        "    adjusted_claim_ratios.loc[:, :, \"2006\":, :].mean(axis=\"origin\").values.squeeze()\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "average_claim_ratios = np.vstack([all_years, ex_high_low, latest_5, latest_3])\n",
+        "selected_expected_claim_ratio = ex_high_low\n",
+        "\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s2_avgs = pd.DataFrame(\n",
+        "    np.round(average_claim_ratios, 3),\n",
+        "    index=[\"All Years (24)\", \"All Years ex Hi/Lo (24)\", \"Latest 5 (24)\", \"Latest 3 (24)\"],\n",
+        "    columns=ty,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s2_avgs.loc[\"Selected (25)\"] = np.round(selected_expected_claim_ratio, 3)\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s2_avgs)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 13,
+      "id": "9c4d3bd9",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.114731Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.114586Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.122532Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.121977Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [],
+      "source": [
+        "# Exhibit III Sheet 2 — reconcile to Friedland PDF p145\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    as_series(selected_view).values,\n",
+        "    [48953, 47404, 77662, 78497, 65239, 62960, 61262],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s2_trend.values,\n",
+        "    [\n",
+        "        [1.070, 1.106, 1.144, 1.183, 1.224],\n",
+        "        [1.034, 1.070, 1.106, 1.144, 1.183],\n",
+        "        [1.000, 1.034, 1.070, 1.106, 1.144],\n",
+        "        [0.967, 1.000, 1.034, 1.070, 1.106],\n",
+        "        [0.935, 0.967, 1.000, 1.034, 1.070],\n",
+        "        [0.904, 0.935, 0.967, 1.000, 1.034],\n",
+        "        [0.874, 0.904, 0.935, 0.967, 1.000],\n",
+        "    ],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s2_tort.values,\n",
+        "    [\n",
+        "        [1.000, 1.000, 0.893, 0.670, 0.670],\n",
+        "        [1.000, 1.000, 0.893, 0.670, 0.670],\n",
+        "        [1.000, 1.000, 0.893, 0.670, 0.670],\n",
+        "        [1.000, 1.000, 0.893, 0.670, 0.670],\n",
+        "        [1.119, 1.119, 1.000, 0.750, 0.750],\n",
+        "        [1.493, 1.493, 1.333, 1.000, 1.000],\n",
+        "        [1.493, 1.493, 1.333, 1.000, 1.000],\n",
+        "    ],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s2_prem[\"Earned Premium (13)\"],\n",
+        "    [61183, 69175, 99322, 138151, 107578, 62438, 47797],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s2_rate.values,\n",
+        "    [\n",
+        "        [1.129, 1.298, 1.428, 1.142, 0.914],\n",
+        "        [1.075, 1.236, 1.360, 1.088, 0.870],\n",
+        "        [1.000, 1.150, 1.265, 1.012, 0.810],\n",
+        "        [0.870, 1.000, 1.100, 0.880, 0.704],\n",
+        "        [0.791, 0.909, 1.000, 0.800, 0.640],\n",
+        "        [0.988, 1.136, 1.250, 1.000, 0.800],\n",
+        "        [1.235, 1.420, 1.562, 1.250, 1.000],\n",
+        "    ],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s2_lr.values,\n",
+        "    [\n",
+        "        [0.758, 0.682, 0.573, 0.555, 0.718],\n",
+        "        [0.659, 0.593, 0.498, 0.483, 0.624],\n",
+        "        [0.782, 0.703, 0.591, 0.573, 0.740],\n",
+        "        [0.632, 0.568, 0.477, 0.463, 0.598],\n",
+        "        [0.803, 0.722, 0.606, 0.588, 0.760],\n",
+        "        [1.377, 1.238, 1.040, 1.008, 1.304],\n",
+        "        [1.354, 1.217, 1.022, 0.991, 1.282],\n",
+        "    ],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    np.round(average_claim_ratios, 3),\n",
+        "    [\n",
+        "        [0.909, 0.818, 0.687, 0.666, 0.861],\n",
+        "        [0.871, 0.783, 0.658, 0.638, 0.825],\n",
+        "        [0.989, 0.890, 0.747, 0.725, 0.937],\n",
+        "        [1.178, 1.059, 0.890, 0.863, 1.115],\n",
+        "    ],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    np.round(selected_expected_claim_ratio, 3), [0.871, 0.783, 0.658, 0.638, 0.825]\n",
+        ")\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "markdown",
+      "id": "e42bf89a",
+      "metadata": {},
+      "source": [
+        "## P146 (Exhibit III Sheet 3)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 14,
+      "id": "b3874bf4",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.126283Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.126065Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.145115Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.144576Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Paid (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Case Outstanding (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Total Unpaid (7)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1998</th>\n",
+              "      <td>15822.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15822.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15660.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-162.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-162.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1999</th>\n",
+              "      <td>25107.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>24817.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>24664.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>290.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-443.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-153.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>37246.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>36782.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>35235.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>464.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-2011.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-1547.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>38798.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>38519.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39150.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>279.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>352.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>631.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>48169.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>44437.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47906.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3732.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-263.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3469.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>44373.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39320.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>54164.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>5053.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>9791.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>14844.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>70288.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>52811.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>86509.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>17477.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>16221.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>33698.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>70655.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>40026.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>108172.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>30629.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>37517.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>68146.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>48804.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>22819.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>70786.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>25985.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>21982.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47967.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>31732.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>11865.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39835.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>19867.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8103.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>27970.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>18632.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3409.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39433.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15223.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>20801.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>36024.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Reported (2)  Paid (3)  Expected Claims (4)  Case Outstanding (5)  IBNR (6)  Total Unpaid (7)\n",
+              "1998       15822.0   15822.0              15660.0                   0.0    -162.0            -162.0\n",
+              "1999       25107.0   24817.0              24664.0                 290.0    -443.0            -153.0\n",
+              "2000       37246.0   36782.0              35235.0                 464.0   -2011.0           -1547.0\n",
+              "2001       38798.0   38519.0              39150.0                 279.0     352.0             631.0\n",
+              "2002       48169.0   44437.0              47906.0                3732.0    -263.0            3469.0\n",
+              "2003       44373.0   39320.0              54164.0                5053.0    9791.0           14844.0\n",
+              "2004       70288.0   52811.0              86509.0               17477.0   16221.0           33698.0\n",
+              "2005       70655.0   40026.0             108172.0               30629.0   37517.0           68146.0\n",
+              "2006       48804.0   22819.0              70786.0               25985.0   21982.0           47967.0\n",
+              "2007       31732.0   11865.0              39835.0               19867.0    8103.0           27970.0\n",
+              "2008       18632.0    3409.0              39433.0               15223.0   20801.0           36024.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Paid (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Case Outstanding (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Total Unpaid (7)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Total</th>\n",
+              "      <td>449626.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>330627.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>561514.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>118999.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>111888.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>230887.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "       Reported (2)  Paid (3)  Expected Claims (4)  Case Outstanding (5)  IBNR (6)  Total Unpaid (7)\n",
+              "Total      449626.0  330627.0             561514.0              118999.0  111888.0          230887.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        }
+      ],
+      "source": [
+        "exhibit_iii_s3 = unpaid_exhibit(\n",
+        "    xyz[\"Reported Claims\"], xyz[\"Paid Claims\"], xyz_expected_claims\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s3)\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s3.sum().rename(\"Total\").to_frame().T)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 15,
+      "id": "27a8fcc2",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.150010Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.149668Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.154711Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.154309Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [],
+      "source": [
+        "# Exhibit III Sheet 3 — reconcile to Friedland PDF p146\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s3[\"Expected Claims (4)\"],\n",
+        "    [15660, 24665, 35235, 39150, 47906, 54164, 86509, 108172, 70786, 39835, 39433],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s3[\"Case Outstanding (5)\"],\n",
+        "    [0, 290, 465, 278, 3731, 5052, 17477, 30629, 25985, 19867, 15223],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s3[\"IBNR (6)\"],\n",
+        "    [-162, -442, -2011, 352, -262, 9791, 16221, 37517, 21982, 8103, 20801],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s3[\"Total Unpaid (7)\"],\n",
+        "    [-162, -152, -1547, 631, 3469, 14844, 33698, 68146, 47967, 27970, 36024],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iii_s3[\"Reported (2)\"].sum(), 449626)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iii_s3[\"Paid (3)\"].sum(), 330629)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iii_s3[\"Expected Claims (4)\"].sum(), 561516, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iii_s3[\"Case Outstanding (5)\"].sum(), 118997, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iii_s3[\"IBNR (6)\"].sum(), 111890, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iii_s3[\"Total Unpaid (7)\"].sum(), 230887, atol=1)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "markdown",
+      "id": "6f43d18f",
+      "metadata": {},
+      "source": [
+        "## P147 (Exhibit III Sheet 4)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 16,
+      "id": "d2eeae83",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.157170Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.156968Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.168591Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.168148Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Paid (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Dev Ult Reported (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Dev Ult Paid (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (6)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1998</th>\n",
+              "      <td>15822.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15822.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15822.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15980.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15660.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1999</th>\n",
+              "      <td>25107.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>24817.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>25082.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>25164.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>24664.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>37246.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>36782.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>36948.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>37922.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>35235.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>38798.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>38519.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>38488.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>40599.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39150.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>48169.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>44437.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>48314.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>49592.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47906.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>44373.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39320.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>44950.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>49858.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>54164.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>70288.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>52811.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>74786.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>80537.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>86509.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>70655.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>40026.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>76661.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>80332.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>108172.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>48804.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>22819.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>58370.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>72108.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>70786.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>31732.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>11865.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47979.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>77941.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39835.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>18632.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3409.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>47530.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>74995.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>39433.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Reported (2)  Paid (3)  Dev Ult Reported (4)  Dev Ult Paid (5)  Expected Claims (6)\n",
+              "1998       15822.0   15822.0               15822.0           15980.0              15660.0\n",
+              "1999       25107.0   24817.0               25082.0           25164.0              24664.0\n",
+              "2000       37246.0   36782.0               36948.0           37922.0              35235.0\n",
+              "2001       38798.0   38519.0               38488.0           40599.0              39150.0\n",
+              "2002       48169.0   44437.0               48314.0           49592.0              47906.0\n",
+              "2003       44373.0   39320.0               44950.0           49858.0              54164.0\n",
+              "2004       70288.0   52811.0               74786.0           80537.0              86509.0\n",
+              "2005       70655.0   40026.0               76661.0           80332.0             108172.0\n",
+              "2006       48804.0   22819.0               58370.0           72108.0              70786.0\n",
+              "2007       31732.0   11865.0               47979.0           77941.0              39835.0\n",
+              "2008       18632.0    3409.0               47530.0           74995.0              39433.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Paid (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Dev Ult Reported (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Dev Ult Paid (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (6)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Total</th>\n",
+              "      <td>449626.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>330627.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>514930.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>605028.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>561514.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "       Reported (2)  Paid (3)  Dev Ult Reported (4)  Dev Ult Paid (5)  Expected Claims (6)\n",
+              "Total      449626.0  330627.0              514930.0          605028.0             561514.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        }
+      ],
+      "source": [
+        "exhibit_iii_s4 = pd.DataFrame(index=years)\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s4[\"Reported (2)\"] = exhibit_iii_s1[\"Reported (2)\"]\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s4[\"Paid (3)\"] = exhibit_iii_s1[\"Paid (3)\"]\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s4[\"Dev Ult Reported (4)\"] = exhibit_iii_s1[\"Ult Reported (6)\"]\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s4[\"Dev Ult Paid (5)\"] = exhibit_iii_s1[\"Ult Paid (7)\"]\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s4[\"Expected Claims (6)\"] = exhibit_iii_s1[\"Expected Claims (12)\"]\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s4)\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s4.sum().rename(\"Total\").to_frame().T)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 17,
+      "id": "f5bea395",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.171408Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.171271Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.175488Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.175003Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [],
+      "source": [
+        "# Exhibit III Sheet 4 — reconcile to Friedland PDF p147\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s4[\"Dev Ult Reported (4)\"],\n",
+        "    [15822, 25082, 36948, 38487, 48313, 44950, 74787, 76661, 58370, 47979, 47530],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s4[\"Dev Ult Paid (5)\"],\n",
+        "    [15980, 25164, 37922, 40600, 49592, 49858, 80537, 80333, 72108, 77941, 74995],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s4[\"Expected Claims (6)\"],\n",
+        "    [15660, 24665, 35235, 39150, 47906, 54164, 86509, 108172, 70786, 39835, 39433],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iii_s4[\"Dev Ult Reported (4)\"].sum(), 514929, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iii_s4[\"Dev Ult Paid (5)\"].sum(), 605030, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iii_s4[\"Expected Claims (6)\"].sum(), 561516, atol=1)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "markdown",
+      "id": "1cbe699e",
+      "metadata": {},
+      "source": [
+        "## P148 (Exhibit III Sheet 5)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 18,
+      "id": "64a93778",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.177559Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.177401Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.187652Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.186954Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Case Outstanding (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Dev IBNR Reported (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Dev IBNR Paid (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected IBNR (5)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1998</th>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>158.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-162.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1999</th>\n",
+              "      <td>290.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-25.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>57.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-443.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>464.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-298.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>676.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-2011.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>279.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-310.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1801.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>352.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>3732.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>145.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1423.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-263.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>5053.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>577.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>5485.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>9791.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>17477.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>4498.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>10249.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>16221.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>30629.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>6006.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>9677.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>37517.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>25985.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>9566.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>23304.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>21982.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>19867.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>16247.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>46209.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8103.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>15223.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>28898.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>56363.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>20801.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Case Outstanding (2)  Dev IBNR Reported (3)  Dev IBNR Paid (4)  Expected IBNR (5)\n",
+              "1998                   0.0                    0.0              158.0             -162.0\n",
+              "1999                 290.0                  -25.0               57.0             -443.0\n",
+              "2000                 464.0                 -298.0              676.0            -2011.0\n",
+              "2001                 279.0                 -310.0             1801.0              352.0\n",
+              "2002                3732.0                  145.0             1423.0             -263.0\n",
+              "2003                5053.0                  577.0             5485.0             9791.0\n",
+              "2004               17477.0                 4498.0            10249.0            16221.0\n",
+              "2005               30629.0                 6006.0             9677.0            37517.0\n",
+              "2006               25985.0                 9566.0            23304.0            21982.0\n",
+              "2007               19867.0                16247.0            46209.0             8103.0\n",
+              "2008               15223.0                28898.0            56363.0            20801.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Case Outstanding (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Dev IBNR Reported (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Dev IBNR Paid (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected IBNR (5)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Total</th>\n",
+              "      <td>118999.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>65304.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>155402.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>111888.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "       Case Outstanding (2)  Dev IBNR Reported (3)  Dev IBNR Paid (4)  Expected IBNR (5)\n",
+              "Total              118999.0                65304.0           155402.0           111888.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        }
+      ],
+      "source": [
+        "exhibit_iii_s5 = pd.DataFrame(index=years)\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s5[\"Case Outstanding (2)\"] = exhibit_iii_s3[\"Case Outstanding (5)\"]\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s5[\"Dev IBNR Reported (3)\"] = (\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s4[\"Dev Ult Reported (4)\"] - exhibit_iii_s4[\"Reported (2)\"]\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s5[\"Dev IBNR Paid (4)\"] = (\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s4[\"Dev Ult Paid (5)\"] - exhibit_iii_s4[\"Reported (2)\"]\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "exhibit_iii_s5[\"Expected IBNR (5)\"] = exhibit_iii_s3[\"IBNR (6)\"]\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s5)\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iii_s5.sum().rename(\"Total\").to_frame().T)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 19,
+      "id": "6bfe7ded",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.190974Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.190055Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.198600Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.196859Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [],
+      "source": [
+        "# Exhibit III Sheet 5 — reconcile to Friedland PDF p148\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s5[\"Dev IBNR Reported (3)\"],\n",
+        "    [0, -25, -298, -311, 144, 577, 4499, 6006, 9566, 16247, 28898],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s5[\"Dev IBNR Paid (4)\"],\n",
+        "    [158, 58, 676, 1802, 1423, 5485, 10249, 9678, 23304, 46209, 56363],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iii_s5[\"Expected IBNR (5)\"],\n",
+        "    [-162, -442, -2011, 352, -262, 9791, 16221, 37517, 21982, 8103, 20801],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iii_s5[\"Case Outstanding (2)\"].sum(), 118997, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iii_s5[\"Dev IBNR Reported (3)\"].sum(), 65303, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iii_s5[\"Dev IBNR Paid (4)\"].sum(), 155405, atol=3)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iii_s5[\"Expected IBNR (5)\"].sum(), 111890, atol=1)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "markdown",
+      "id": "1aa6cc74",
+      "metadata": {},
+      "source": [
+        "## P149 (Exhibit IV Sheet 1)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 20,
+      "id": "42abf044",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.204196Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.203877Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.335729Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.334928Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [
+        {
+          "name": "stdout",
+          "output_type": "stream",
+          "text": [
+            "Steady-State\n"
+          ]
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Claim Ratio (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Actual IBNR (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Difference (8)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1999</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>700000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>700000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1050000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>735000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>735000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1102500.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>771750.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>771750.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1157625.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>810338.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>810338.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1215506.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>850854.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>842346.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8508.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8508.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1276282.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>893397.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>884463.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8934.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8934.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1340096.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>938067.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>919306.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>18761.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>18761.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1407100.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>984970.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>935722.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>49248.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>49249.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1477455.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1034218.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>930797.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>103421.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>103422.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1551328.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1085930.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>836166.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>249764.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>249764.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Earned Premium (2)  Claim Ratio (3)  Expected Claims (4)  Reported (5)  Estimated IBNR (6)  Actual IBNR (7)  Difference (8)\n",
+              "1999           1000000.0              0.7             700000.0      700000.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2000           1050000.0              0.7             735000.0      735000.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2001           1102500.0              0.7             771750.0      771750.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2002           1157625.0              0.7             810338.0      810338.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2003           1215506.0              0.7             850854.0      842346.0              8508.0           8508.0             0.0\n",
+              "2004           1276282.0              0.7             893397.0      884463.0              8934.0           8934.0             0.0\n",
+              "2005           1340096.0              0.7             938067.0      919306.0             18761.0          18761.0             0.0\n",
+              "2006           1407100.0              0.7             984970.0      935722.0             49248.0          49249.0             1.0\n",
+              "2007           1477455.0              0.7            1034218.0      930797.0            103421.0         103422.0             1.0\n",
+              "2008           1551328.0              0.7            1085930.0      836166.0            249764.0         249764.0             0.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Actual IBNR (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Difference (8)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Total</th>\n",
+              "      <td>12577892.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8804524.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8365888.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>438636.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>438638.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "       Earned Premium (2)  Expected Claims (4)  Reported (5)  Estimated IBNR (6)  Actual IBNR (7)  Difference (8)\n",
+              "Total          12577892.0            8804524.0     8365888.0            438636.0         438638.0             2.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "name": "stdout",
+          "output_type": "stream",
+          "text": [
+            "Increasing Claim Ratios\n"
+          ]
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Claim Ratio (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Actual IBNR (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Difference (8)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1999</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>700000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>700000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1050000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>735000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>735000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1102500.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>771750.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>771750.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1157625.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>810338.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>810338.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1215506.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>850854.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>842346.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8508.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8508.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1276282.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>893397.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1010815.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-117418.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>10210.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>127628.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1340096.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>938067.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1116300.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-178233.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>22782.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>201015.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1407100.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>984970.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1203071.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-218101.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>63320.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>281421.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1477455.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1034218.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1263224.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-229006.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>140358.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>369364.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1551328.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1085930.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1194523.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-108593.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>356805.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>465398.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Earned Premium (2)  Claim Ratio (3)  Expected Claims (4)  Reported (5)  Estimated IBNR (6)  Actual IBNR (7)  Difference (8)\n",
+              "1999           1000000.0              0.7             700000.0      700000.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2000           1050000.0              0.7             735000.0      735000.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2001           1102500.0              0.7             771750.0      771750.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2002           1157625.0              0.7             810338.0      810338.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2003           1215506.0              0.7             850854.0      842346.0              8508.0           8508.0             0.0\n",
+              "2004           1276282.0              0.7             893397.0     1010815.0           -117418.0          10210.0        127628.0\n",
+              "2005           1340096.0              0.7             938067.0     1116300.0           -178233.0          22782.0        201015.0\n",
+              "2006           1407100.0              0.7             984970.0     1203071.0           -218101.0          63320.0        281421.0\n",
+              "2007           1477455.0              0.7            1034218.0     1263224.0           -229006.0         140358.0        369364.0\n",
+              "2008           1551328.0              0.7            1085930.0     1194523.0           -108593.0         356805.0        465398.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Actual IBNR (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Difference (8)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Total</th>\n",
+              "      <td>12577892.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8804524.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>9647367.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-842843.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>601983.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1444826.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "       Earned Premium (2)  Expected Claims (4)  Reported (5)  Estimated IBNR (6)  Actual IBNR (7)  Difference (8)\n",
+              "Total          12577892.0            8804524.0     9647367.0           -842843.0         601983.0       1444826.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        }
+      ],
+      "source": [
+        "def changing_conditions_exhibit(triangle, claim_ratio, actual_ibnr_values):\n",
+        "    earned = np.round(triangle[\"Earned Premium\"].latest_diagonal, 0)\n",
+        "    el = cl.ExpectedLoss(apriori=claim_ratio).fit(\n",
+        "        triangle[\"Reported Claims\"], sample_weight=earned\n",
+        "    )\n",
+        "    expected = np.round(el.ultimate_, 0)\n",
+        "    reported = triangle[\"Reported Claims\"].latest_diagonal\n",
+        "    estimated_ibnr = np.round(el.ibnr_, 0).fillzero()\n",
+        "    actual_ibnr = estimated_ibnr.copy()\n",
+        "    actual_ibnr.values = np.array(actual_ibnr_values, dtype=float).reshape(\n",
+        "        estimated_ibnr.shape\n",
+        "    )\n",
+        "    difference = np.round(actual_ibnr - estimated_ibnr, 0).fillzero()\n",
+        "    out = pd.DataFrame(index=list(triangle[\"Reported Claims\"].origin.year))\n",
+        "    out[\"Earned Premium (2)\"] = as_series(earned).values\n",
+        "    out[\"Claim Ratio (3)\"] = claim_ratio\n",
+        "    out[\"Expected Claims (4)\"] = as_series(expected).values\n",
+        "    out[\"Reported (5)\"] = as_series(reported).values\n",
+        "    out[\"Estimated IBNR (6)\"] = as_series(estimated_ibnr).values\n",
+        "    out[\"Actual IBNR (7)\"] = as_series(actual_ibnr).values\n",
+        "    out[\"Difference (8)\"] = as_series(difference).values\n",
+        "    return out\n",
+        "\n",
+        "\n",
+        "uspp = cl.load_sample(\"friedland_uspp\")\n",
+        "\n",
+        "exhibit_iv_steady = changing_conditions_exhibit(\n",
+        "    uspp.loc[\"Steady State\"],\n",
+        "    0.70,\n",
+        "    [0, 0, 0, 0, 8508, 8934, 18761, 49249, 103422, 249764],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "exhibit_iv_incr_claim = changing_conditions_exhibit(\n",
+        "    uspp.loc[\"Increasing Claim\"],\n",
+        "    0.70,\n",
+        "    [0, 0, 0, 0, 8508, 10210, 22782, 63320, 140358, 356805],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "\n",
+        "print(\"Steady-State\")\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iv_steady)\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iv_steady[[\"Earned Premium (2)\", \"Expected Claims (4)\", \"Reported (5)\", \"Estimated IBNR (6)\", \"Actual IBNR (7)\", \"Difference (8)\"]].sum().rename(\"Total\").to_frame().T)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "print(\"Increasing Claim Ratios\")\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iv_incr_claim)\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iv_incr_claim[[\"Earned Premium (2)\", \"Expected Claims (4)\", \"Reported (5)\", \"Estimated IBNR (6)\", \"Actual IBNR (7)\", \"Difference (8)\"]].sum().rename(\"Total\").to_frame().T)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 21,
+      "id": "75d0449f",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.342004Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.341713Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.348054Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.347393Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [],
+      "source": [
+        "# Exhibit IV Sheet 1 — reconcile to Friedland PDF p149\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iv_steady[\"Earned Premium (2)\"],\n",
+        "    [1000000, 1050000, 1102500, 1157625, 1215506, 1276282, 1340096, 1407100, 1477455, 1551328],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iv_steady[\"Expected Claims (4)\"],\n",
+        "    [700000, 735000, 771750, 810338, 850854, 893397, 938067, 984970, 1034219, 1085930],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iv_steady[\"Earned Premium (2)\"].sum(), 12577893, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iv_steady[\"Expected Claims (4)\"].sum(), 8804525, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iv_steady[\"Estimated IBNR (6)\"].sum(), 438638, atol=2)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iv_steady[\"Difference (8)\"].sum(), 0, atol=2)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_iv_incr_claim[\"Estimated IBNR (6)\"],\n",
+        "    [0, 0, 0, 0, 8508, -117418, -178233, -218101, -229006, -108593],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iv_incr_claim[\"Estimated IBNR (6)\"].sum(), -842841, atol=2)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iv_incr_claim[\"Actual IBNR (7)\"].sum(), 601984, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iv_incr_claim[\"Difference (8)\"].sum(), 1444824, atol=2)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "markdown",
+      "id": "0e80110a",
+      "metadata": {},
+      "source": [
+        "## P150 (Exhibit IV Sheet 2)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 22,
+      "id": "480249f8",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.352619Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.352453Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.471842Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.471445Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [
+        {
+          "name": "stdout",
+          "output_type": "stream",
+          "text": [
+            "Increasing Case Outstanding Strength\n"
+          ]
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Claim Ratio (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Actual IBNR (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Difference (8)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1999</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>700000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>700000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1050000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>735000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>735000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1102500.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>771750.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>771750.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1157625.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>810338.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>810338.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1215506.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>850854.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>842346.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8508.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8509.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1276282.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>893397.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>884463.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8934.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8934.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1340096.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>938067.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>933377.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>4690.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>4690.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1407100.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>984970.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>962808.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>22162.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>22162.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1477455.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1034218.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>979922.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>54296.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>54296.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1551328.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1085930.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>931185.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>154745.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>154745.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Earned Premium (2)  Claim Ratio (3)  Expected Claims (4)  Reported (5)  Estimated IBNR (6)  Actual IBNR (7)  Difference (8)\n",
+              "1999           1000000.0              0.7             700000.0      700000.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2000           1050000.0              0.7             735000.0      735000.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2001           1102500.0              0.7             771750.0      771750.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2002           1157625.0              0.7             810338.0      810338.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2003           1215506.0              0.7             850854.0      842346.0              8508.0           8509.0             1.0\n",
+              "2004           1276282.0              0.7             893397.0      884463.0              8934.0           8934.0             0.0\n",
+              "2005           1340096.0              0.7             938067.0      933377.0              4690.0           4690.0             0.0\n",
+              "2006           1407100.0              0.7             984970.0      962808.0             22162.0          22162.0             0.0\n",
+              "2007           1477455.0              0.7            1034218.0      979922.0             54296.0          54296.0             0.0\n",
+              "2008           1551328.0              0.7            1085930.0      931185.0            154745.0         154745.0             0.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Actual IBNR (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Difference (8)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Total</th>\n",
+              "      <td>12577892.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8804524.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8551189.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>253335.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>253336.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "       Earned Premium (2)  Expected Claims (4)  Reported (5)  Estimated IBNR (6)  Actual IBNR (7)  Difference (8)\n",
+              "Total          12577892.0            8804524.0     8551189.0            253335.0         253336.0             1.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "name": "stdout",
+          "output_type": "stream",
+          "text": [
+            "Increasing Claim Ratios and Case Outstanding Strength\n"
+          ]
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Claim Ratio (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Actual IBNR (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Difference (8)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1999</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>700000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>700000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1050000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>735000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>735000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1102500.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>771750.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>771750.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1157625.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>810338.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>810338.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1215506.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>850854.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>842346.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8508.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8509.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1276282.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>893397.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1010815.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-117418.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>10210.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>127628.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1340096.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>938067.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1133386.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-195319.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>5695.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>201014.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1407100.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>984970.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1237897.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-252927.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>28494.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>281421.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1477455.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1034218.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1329895.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-295677.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>73688.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>369365.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>1551328.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1085930.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1330264.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-244334.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>221064.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>465398.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Earned Premium (2)  Claim Ratio (3)  Expected Claims (4)  Reported (5)  Estimated IBNR (6)  Actual IBNR (7)  Difference (8)\n",
+              "1999           1000000.0              0.7             700000.0      700000.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2000           1050000.0              0.7             735000.0      735000.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2001           1102500.0              0.7             771750.0      771750.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2002           1157625.0              0.7             810338.0      810338.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2003           1215506.0              0.7             850854.0      842346.0              8508.0           8509.0             1.0\n",
+              "2004           1276282.0              0.7             893397.0     1010815.0           -117418.0          10210.0        127628.0\n",
+              "2005           1340096.0              0.7             938067.0     1133386.0           -195319.0           5695.0        201014.0\n",
+              "2006           1407100.0              0.7             984970.0     1237897.0           -252927.0          28494.0        281421.0\n",
+              "2007           1477455.0              0.7            1034218.0     1329895.0           -295677.0          73688.0        369365.0\n",
+              "2008           1551328.0              0.7            1085930.0     1330264.0           -244334.0         221064.0        465398.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Actual IBNR (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Difference (8)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Total</th>\n",
+              "      <td>12577892.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8804524.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>9901691.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-1097167.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>347660.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1444827.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "       Earned Premium (2)  Expected Claims (4)  Reported (5)  Estimated IBNR (6)  Actual IBNR (7)  Difference (8)\n",
+              "Total          12577892.0            8804524.0     9901691.0          -1097167.0         347660.0       1444827.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        }
+      ],
+      "source": [
+        "exhibit_iv_case = changing_conditions_exhibit(\n",
+        "    uspp.loc[\"Increasing Case\"],\n",
+        "    0.70,\n",
+        "    [0, 0, 0, 0, 8509, 8934, 4690, 22162, 54296, 154745],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "exhibit_iv_both = changing_conditions_exhibit(\n",
+        "    uspp.loc[\"Increasing Claim Case\"],\n",
+        "    0.70,\n",
+        "    [0, 0, 0, 0, 8509, 10210, 5695, 28494, 73688, 221064],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "\n",
+        "print(\"Increasing Case Outstanding Strength\")\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iv_case)\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iv_case[[\"Earned Premium (2)\", \"Expected Claims (4)\", \"Reported (5)\", \"Estimated IBNR (6)\", \"Actual IBNR (7)\", \"Difference (8)\"]].sum().rename(\"Total\").to_frame().T)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "print(\"Increasing Claim Ratios and Case Outstanding Strength\")\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iv_both)\n",
+        "display(exhibit_iv_both[[\"Earned Premium (2)\", \"Expected Claims (4)\", \"Reported (5)\", \"Estimated IBNR (6)\", \"Actual IBNR (7)\", \"Difference (8)\"]].sum().rename(\"Total\").to_frame().T)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 23,
+      "id": "acaa350f",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.474199Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.473975Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.477094Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.476706Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [],
+      "source": [
+        "# Exhibit IV Sheet 2 — reconcile to Friedland PDF p150\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iv_case[\"Estimated IBNR (6)\"].sum(), 253336, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iv_case[\"Difference (8)\"].sum(), 0, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iv_both[\"Estimated IBNR (6)\"].sum(), -1097165, atol=2)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iv_both[\"Actual IBNR (7)\"].sum(), 347660, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_iv_both[\"Difference (8)\"].sum(), 1444824, atol=3)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "markdown",
+      "id": "2a558e27",
+      "metadata": {},
+      "source": [
+        "## P151 (Exhibit V)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 24,
+      "id": "2636edf6",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.479423Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.479238Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.626414Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.623915Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [
+        {
+          "name": "stdout",
+          "output_type": "stream",
+          "text": [
+            "Steady-State (No Change in Product Mix)\n"
+          ]
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Claim Ratio (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Actual IBNR (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Difference (8)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1999</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1500000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1500000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2100000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1575000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1575000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2205000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1653750.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1653750.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2315250.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1736438.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1736438.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2431013.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1823260.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1814751.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8509.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8509.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2552563.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1914422.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1885068.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>29354.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>29354.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2680191.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2010143.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1948499.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>61644.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>61644.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2814201.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2110651.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1937577.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>173074.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>173073.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-1.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2954911.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2216183.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1852729.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>363454.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>363454.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>3102656.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2326992.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1568393.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>758599.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>758599.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Earned Premium (2)  Claim Ratio (3)  Expected Claims (4)  Reported (5)  Estimated IBNR (6)  Actual IBNR (7)  Difference (8)\n",
+              "1999           2000000.0             0.75            1500000.0     1500000.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2000           2100000.0             0.75            1575000.0     1575000.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2001           2205000.0             0.75            1653750.0     1653750.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2002           2315250.0             0.75            1736438.0     1736438.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2003           2431013.0             0.75            1823260.0     1814751.0              8509.0           8509.0             0.0\n",
+              "2004           2552563.0             0.75            1914422.0     1885068.0             29354.0          29354.0             0.0\n",
+              "2005           2680191.0             0.75            2010143.0     1948499.0             61644.0          61644.0             0.0\n",
+              "2006           2814201.0             0.75            2110651.0     1937577.0            173074.0         173073.0            -1.0\n",
+              "2007           2954911.0             0.75            2216183.0     1852729.0            363454.0         363454.0             0.0\n",
+              "2008           3102656.0             0.75            2326992.0     1568393.0            758599.0         758599.0             0.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Actual IBNR (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Difference (8)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Total</th>\n",
+              "      <td>25155785.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>18866839.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>17472205.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1394634.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1394633.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>-1.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "       Earned Premium (2)  Expected Claims (4)  Reported (5)  Estimated IBNR (6)  Actual IBNR (7)  Difference (8)\n",
+              "Total          25155785.0           18866839.0    17472205.0           1394634.0        1394633.0            -1.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "name": "stdout",
+          "output_type": "stream",
+          "text": [
+            "Changing Product Mix\n"
+          ]
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Claim Ratio (3)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Actual IBNR (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Difference (8)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>1999</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2000000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1500000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1500000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2000</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2100000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1575000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1575000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2001</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2205000.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1653750.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1653750.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2002</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2315250.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1736438.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1736438.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2003</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2431013.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1823260.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1814751.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8509.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>8509.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2004</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2552563.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1914422.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1885068.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>29354.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>29354.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2005</th>\n",
+              "      <td>2999262.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2249446.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2193545.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>55902.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>71855.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>15953.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2006</th>\n",
+              "      <td>3564016.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2673012.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2471446.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>201566.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>239057.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>37491.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2007</th>\n",
+              "      <td>4281446.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3211084.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2680487.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>530598.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>596924.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>66326.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>2008</th>\n",
+              "      <td>5196516.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
+              "      <td>3897387.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2556695.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1340692.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>1445385.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>104693.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "      Earned Premium (2)  Claim Ratio (3)  Expected Claims (4)  Reported (5)  Estimated IBNR (6)  Actual IBNR (7)  Difference (8)\n",
+              "1999           2000000.0             0.75            1500000.0     1500000.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2000           2100000.0             0.75            1575000.0     1575000.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2001           2205000.0             0.75            1653750.0     1653750.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2002           2315250.0             0.75            1736438.0     1736438.0                 0.0              0.0             0.0\n",
+              "2003           2431013.0             0.75            1823260.0     1814751.0              8509.0           8509.0             0.0\n",
+              "2004           2552563.0             0.75            1914422.0     1885068.0             29354.0          29354.0             0.0\n",
+              "2005           2999262.0             0.75            2249446.0     2193545.0             55902.0          71855.0         15953.0\n",
+              "2006           3564016.0             0.75            2673012.0     2471446.0            201566.0         239057.0         37491.0\n",
+              "2007           4281446.0             0.75            3211084.0     2680487.0            530598.0         596924.0         66326.0\n",
+              "2008           5196516.0             0.75            3897387.0     2556695.0           1340692.0        1445385.0        104693.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        },
+        {
+          "data": {
+            "text/html": [
+              "<div>\n",
+              "<style scoped>\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+              "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "\n",
+              "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+              "        text-align: right;\n",
+              "    }\n",
+              "</style>\n",
+              "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+              "  <thead>\n",
+              "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+              "      <th></th>\n",
+              "      <th>Earned Premium (2)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Expected Claims (4)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Reported (5)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Estimated IBNR (6)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Actual IBNR (7)</th>\n",
+              "      <th>Difference (8)</th>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </thead>\n",
+              "  <tbody>\n",
+              "    <tr>\n",
+              "      <th>Total</th>\n",
+              "      <td>29645066.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>22233799.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>20067180.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2166621.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>2391084.0</td>\n",
+              "      <td>224463.0</td>\n",
+              "    </tr>\n",
+              "  </tbody>\n",
+              "</table>\n",
+              "</div>"
+            ],
+            "text/plain": [
+              "       Earned Premium (2)  Expected Claims (4)  Reported (5)  Estimated IBNR (6)  Actual IBNR (7)  Difference (8)\n",
+              "Total          29645066.0           22233799.0    20067180.0           2166621.0        2391084.0        224463.0"
+            ]
+          },
+          "metadata": {},
+          "output_type": "display_data"
+        }
+      ],
+      "source": [
+        "us_auto = cl.load_sample(\"friedland_us_auto\")\n",
+        "\n",
+        "exhibit_v_steady = changing_conditions_exhibit(\n",
+        "    us_auto.loc[\"Steady State\"],\n",
+        "    0.75,\n",
+        "    [0, 0, 0, 0, 8509, 29354, 61644, 173073, 363454, 758599],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "exhibit_v_mix = changing_conditions_exhibit(\n",
+        "    us_auto.loc[\"Changing Product Mix\"],\n",
+        "    0.75,\n",
+        "    [0, 0, 0, 0, 8509, 29354, 71855, 239057, 596924, 1445385],\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "\n",
+        "print(\"Steady-State (No Change in Product Mix)\")\n",
+        "display(exhibit_v_steady)\n",
+        "display(exhibit_v_steady[[\"Earned Premium (2)\", \"Expected Claims (4)\", \"Reported (5)\", \"Estimated IBNR (6)\", \"Actual IBNR (7)\", \"Difference (8)\"]].sum().rename(\"Total\").to_frame().T)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "print(\"Changing Product Mix\")\n",
+        "display(exhibit_v_mix)\n",
+        "display(exhibit_v_mix[[\"Earned Premium (2)\", \"Expected Claims (4)\", \"Reported (5)\", \"Estimated IBNR (6)\", \"Actual IBNR (7)\", \"Difference (8)\"]].sum().rename(\"Total\").to_frame().T)\n"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "cell_type": "code",
+      "execution_count": 25,
+      "id": "73e84efc",
+      "metadata": {
+        "execution": {
+          "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.628688Z",
+          "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.628544Z",
+          "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.634275Z",
+          "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-23T16:32:58.633821Z"
+        }
+      },
+      "outputs": [],
+      "source": [
+        "# Exhibit V — reconcile to Friedland PDF p151\n",
+        "assert np.allclose(\n",
+        "    exhibit_v_steady[\"Earned Premium (2)\"],\n",
+        "    [2000000, 2100000, 2205000, 2315250, 2431013, 2552563, 2680191, 2814201, 2954911, 3102656],\n",
+        "    atol=1,\n",
+        ")\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_v_steady[\"Earned Premium (2)\"].sum(), 25155785, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_v_steady[\"Expected Claims (4)\"].sum(), 18866839, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_v_steady[\"Estimated IBNR (6)\"].sum(), 1394634, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_v_steady[\"Difference (8)\"].sum(), 0, atol=1)\n",
+        "\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_v_mix[\"Earned Premium (2)\"].sum(), 29645066, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_v_mix[\"Expected Claims (4)\"].sum(), 22233799, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_v_mix[\"Estimated IBNR (6)\"].sum(), 2166620, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_v_mix[\"Actual IBNR (7)\"].sum(), 2391084, atol=1)\n",
+        "assert np.isclose(exhibit_v_mix[\"Difference (8)\"].sum(), 224465, atol=2)\n"
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "metadata": {
+    "kernelspec": {
+      "display_name": "Python 3",
+      "language": "python",
+      "name": "python3"
+    },
+    "language_info": {
+      "codemirror_mode": {
+        "name": "ipython",
+        "version": 3
+      },
+      "file_extension": ".py",
+      "mimetype": "text/x-python",
+      "name": "python",
+      "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
+      "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
+      "version": "3.10.7"
+    }
+  },
+  "nbformat": 4,
+  "nbformat_minor": 5
+}